Pick’em Report

Pick, model confidence, and market line at a glance — expand a card for the full reasoning and ESPN team stats behind it.

Splash Sports lines

Paste this week's Splash lines below (one team + line per line, e.g. "Kansas City Chiefs -3.5") to see them under each pick and flag where they diverge from the model.
League / Mode
NFL · ats
Slate week
2026-10-14 – 2026-10-19
Games
14
Odds API
Enabled
ATS coverage
1 / 14
API credits left
470
Last call cost
3
#13 · 62 pts Win % (no spread)

LAC @ KC

Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs
Pick Kansas City Chiefs
Win % (no spread)
82.1% (KC)
Market spread
No line
Books
—
No sportsbook spread available for this game; fell back to straight-up win probability.
Basic reasoning ▾

We're picking Kansas City Chiefs.

Our model gives KC a predicted 82.1% chance to win outright against LAC. No sportsbook spread was available for this game, so the pick is based on who's more likely to win outright.

KC also grades out as the better team this season, which backs up the pick.

This pick is worth 62 confidence points this week — the more points assigned, the more confident the model is.

Reasoning & ESPN stats ▾

Reasoning

  1. Regressed preseason ratings from the 2025 season, pulled toward league-average (regression retains 65% of the raw historical rating): KC -0.00 vs LAC +0.90.
  2. Blended with this season's to-date rating (60.0% weight for KC, 72.0% for LAC, based on games played so far) → model rating of KC +4.17 vs LAC -4.72.
  3. Add home-field edge (~+1.75 pts) → predicted margin of +10.6 pts for KC.
  4. Predicted margin converts to a straight-up win probability of 82.1% KC / 17.9% LAC (source: ESPN model).
  5. No sportsbook spread was available for this game, so ATS probability could not be computed.
  6. Decision basis: straight-up fallback — requested ATS mode but no spread was available for this game.
Projected score: LAC 18.7 – KC 29.3

ESPN team stats

KC (home)LAC (away)
Record 6-11 11-6
Win % 35.3% 64.7%
Points for / game 21.3 21.6
Points against / game 19.3 20.0
Avg scoring margin +2.0 +1.6
Strength of schedule +0.131 -0.558
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) #20 of 32 (-1.6) #21 of 32 (-1.7)
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) #5 of 32 (+3.4) #11 of 32 (+1.8)
Season rating (SOS-adjusted) -0.01 +1.38
Regressed preseason rating -0.00 +0.90
Blended rating (used by model) +4.17 -4.72
In-season blend weight 60.0% 72.0%
KC (home)LAC (away)
Record 5-0 0-6
Win % 100.0% 0.0%
Points for / game 28.0 15.0
Points against / game 16.6 25.2
Avg scoring margin +11.4 -10.2
Strength of schedule -3.866 +1.507
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) #5 of 32 (+5.5) #30 of 32 (-7.6)
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) #6 of 32 (+2.7) #18 of 32 (+0.0)
Team rating (SOS-adjusted) +6.96 -6.91
#22 · 53 pts Win % (no spread)

NYJ @ NE

New York Jets at New England Patriots
Pick New England Patriots
Win % (no spread)
73.2% (NE)
Market spread
No line
Books
—
No sportsbook spread available for this game; fell back to straight-up win probability.
Basic reasoning ▾

We're picking New England Patriots.

Our model gives NE a predicted 73.2% chance to win outright against NYJ. No sportsbook spread was available for this game, so the pick is based on who's more likely to win outright.

NE also grades out as the better team this season, which backs up the pick.

This pick is worth 53 confidence points this week — the more points assigned, the more confident the model is.

Reasoning & ESPN stats ▾

Reasoning

  1. Regressed preseason ratings from the 2025 season, pulled toward league-average (regression retains 65% of the raw historical rating): NE +3.68 vs NYJ -4.30.
  2. Blended with this season's to-date rating (72.0% weight for NE, 72.0% for NYJ, based on games played so far) → model rating of NE +2.86 vs NYJ -2.42.
  3. Add home-field edge (~+1.75 pts) → predicted margin of +7.0 pts for NE.
  4. Predicted margin converts to a straight-up win probability of 73.2% NE / 26.8% NYJ (source: ESPN model).
  5. No sportsbook spread was available for this game, so ATS probability could not be computed.
  6. Decision basis: straight-up fallback — requested ATS mode but no spread was available for this game.
Projected score: NYJ 20.5 – NE 27.5

ESPN team stats

NE (home)NYJ (away)
Record 14-3 3-14
Win % 82.3% 17.6%
Points for / game 28.8 17.6
Points against / game 18.8 29.6
Avg scoring margin +10.0 -11.9
Strength of schedule -2.475 +0.699
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) #1 of 32 (+7.4) #29 of 32 (-5.1)
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) #10 of 32 (+2.1) #31 of 32 (-5.6)
Season rating (SOS-adjusted) +5.67 -6.62
Regressed preseason rating +3.68 -4.30
Blended rating (used by model) +2.86 -2.42
In-season blend weight 72.0% 72.0%
NE (home)NYJ (away)
Record 4-2 2-4
Win % 66.7% 33.3%
Points for / game 22.7 18.7
Points against / game 18.8 20.3
Avg scoring margin +3.8 -1.7
Strength of schedule +1.716 +0.496
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) #20 of 32 (-0.5) #28 of 32 (-6.0)
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) #2 of 32 (+5.8) #8 of 32 (+1.8)
Team rating (SOS-adjusted) +2.54 -1.69
#31 · 44 pts Win % (no spread)

ARI @ LAR

Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams
Pick Los Angeles Rams
Win % (no spread)
70.3% (LAR)
Market spread
No line
Books
—
No sportsbook spread available for this game; fell back to straight-up win probability.
Basic reasoning ▾

We're picking Los Angeles Rams.

Our model gives LAR a predicted 70.3% chance to win outright against ARI. No sportsbook spread was available for this game, so the pick is based on who's more likely to win outright.

LAR also grades out as the better team this season, which backs up the pick.

This pick is worth 44 confidence points this week — the more points assigned, the more confident the model is.

Reasoning & ESPN stats ▾

Reasoning

  1. Regressed preseason ratings from the 2025 season, pulled toward league-average (regression retains 65% of the raw historical rating): LAR +3.52 vs ARI -3.13.
  2. Blended with this season's to-date rating (72.0% weight for LAR, 72.0% for ARI, based on games played so far) → model rating of LAR +0.18 vs ARI -4.09.
  3. Add home-field edge (~+1.75 pts) → predicted margin of +6.0 pts for LAR.
  4. Predicted margin converts to a straight-up win probability of 70.3% LAR / 29.7% ARI (source: ESPN model).
  5. No sportsbook spread was available for this game, so ATS probability could not be computed.
  6. Decision basis: straight-up fallback — requested ATS mode but no spread was available for this game.
Projected score: ARI 21.0 – LAR 27.0

ESPN team stats

LAR (home)ARI (away)
Record 12-5 3-14
Win % 70.6% 17.6%
Points for / game 30.5 20.9
Points against / game 20.4 28.7
Avg scoring margin +10.1 -7.8
Strength of schedule +0.600 +1.480
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) #2 of 32 (+6.8) #26 of 32 (-2.7)
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) #7 of 32 (+2.9) #29 of 32 (-4.3)
Season rating (SOS-adjusted) +5.42 -4.81
Regressed preseason rating +3.52 -3.13
Blended rating (used by model) +0.18 -4.09
In-season blend weight 72.0% 72.0%
LAR (home)ARI (away)
Record 2-4 2-4
Win % 33.3% 33.3%
Points for / game 22.5 21.0
Points against / game 23.0 29.7
Avg scoring margin -0.5 -8.7
Strength of schedule +0.689 +0.588
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) #19 of 32 (-0.1) #23 of 32 (-2.0)
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) #13 of 32 (+1.0) #30 of 32 (-4.1)
Team rating (SOS-adjusted) -1.12 -4.47
#37 · 38 pts Win % (no spread)

TEN @ IND

Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts
Pick Indianapolis Colts
Win % (no spread)
67.9% (IND)
Market spread
No line
Books
—
No sportsbook spread available for this game; fell back to straight-up win probability.
Basic reasoning ▾

We're picking Indianapolis Colts.

Our model gives IND a predicted 67.9% chance to win outright against TEN. No sportsbook spread was available for this game, so the pick is based on who's more likely to win outright.

IND also grades out as the better team this season, which backs up the pick.

This pick is worth 38 confidence points this week — the more points assigned, the more confident the model is.

Reasoning & ESPN stats ▾

Reasoning

  1. Regressed preseason ratings from the 2025 season, pulled toward league-average (regression retains 65% of the raw historical rating): IND +0.83 vs TEN -4.11.
  2. Blended with this season's to-date rating (72.0% weight for IND, 72.0% for TEN, based on games played so far) → model rating of IND -1.41 vs TEN -4.89.
  3. Add home-field edge (~+1.75 pts) → predicted margin of +5.2 pts for IND.
  4. Predicted margin converts to a straight-up win probability of 67.9% IND / 32.1% TEN (source: ESPN model).
  5. No sportsbook spread was available for this game, so ATS probability could not be computed.
  6. Decision basis: straight-up fallback — requested ATS mode but no spread was available for this game.
Projected score: TEN 21.4 – IND 26.6

ESPN team stats

IND (home)TEN (away)
Record 8-9 3-14
Win % 47.1% 17.6%
Points for / game 27.4 16.7
Points against / game 24.2 28.1
Avg scoring margin +3.2 -11.4
Strength of schedule +0.620 +1.795
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) #8 of 32 (+3.3) #31 of 32 (-8.0)
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) #23 of 32 (-1.8) #28 of 32 (-4.3)
Season rating (SOS-adjusted) +1.28 -6.32
Regressed preseason rating +0.83 -4.11
Blended rating (used by model) -1.41 -4.89
In-season blend weight 72.0% 72.0%
IND (home)TEN (away)
Record 2-4 1-5
Win % 33.3% 16.7%
Points for / game 24.0 14.0
Points against / game 27.3 21.5
Avg scoring margin -3.3 -7.5
Strength of schedule +0.242 -1.032
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) #14 of 32 (+1.0) #31 of 32 (-8.9)
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) #27 of 32 (-3.6) #10 of 32 (+1.2)
Team rating (SOS-adjusted) -2.28 -5.20
#42 · 33 pts Win % (no spread)

DAL @ GB

Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers
Pick Green Bay Packers
Win % (no spread)
63.8% (GB)
Market spread
No line
Books
—
No sportsbook spread available for this game; fell back to straight-up win probability.
Basic reasoning ▾

We're picking Green Bay Packers.

Our model gives GB a predicted 63.8% chance to win outright against DAL. No sportsbook spread was available for this game, so the pick is based on who's more likely to win outright.

GB also grades out as the better team this season, which backs up the pick.

This pick is worth 33 confidence points this week — the more points assigned, the more confident the model is.

Reasoning & ESPN stats ▾

Reasoning

  1. Regressed preseason ratings from the 2025 season, pulled toward league-average (regression retains 65% of the raw historical rating): GB +0.66 vs DAL -0.84.
  2. Blended with this season's to-date rating (72.0% weight for GB, 72.0% for DAL, based on games played so far) → model rating of GB +0.86 vs DAL -1.35.
  3. Add home-field edge (~+1.75 pts) → predicted margin of +4.0 pts for GB.
  4. Predicted margin converts to a straight-up win probability of 63.8% GB / 36.2% DAL (source: ESPN model).
  5. No sportsbook spread was available for this game, so ATS probability could not be computed.
  6. Decision basis: straight-up fallback — requested ATS mode but no spread was available for this game.
Projected score: DAL 22.0 – GB 26.0

ESPN team stats

GB (home)DAL (away)
Record 9-7-1 7-9-1
Win % 55.9% 44.1%
Points for / game 23.0 27.7
Points against / game 21.2 30.1
Avg scoring margin +1.8 -2.4
Strength of schedule -0.385 -1.195
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) #16 of 32 (+0.5) #7 of 32 (+4.7)
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) #9 of 32 (+2.2) #32 of 32 (-8.4)
Season rating (SOS-adjusted) +1.02 -1.29
Regressed preseason rating +0.66 -0.84
Blended rating (used by model) +0.86 -1.35
In-season blend weight 72.0% 72.0%
GB (home)DAL (away)
Record 4-2 2-4
Win % 66.7% 33.3%
Points for / game 21.2 25.2
Points against / game 20.8 26.5
Avg scoring margin +0.3 -1.3
Strength of schedule +0.184 -0.846
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) #24 of 32 (-3.1) #8 of 32 (+3.0)
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) #12 of 32 (+1.1) #26 of 32 (-3.1)
Team rating (SOS-adjusted) +0.94 -1.55
#44 · 31 pts Win % (no spread)

HOU @ JAX

Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars
Pick Jacksonville Jaguars
Win % (no spread)
63.5% (JAX)
Market spread
No line
Books
—
No sportsbook spread available for this game; fell back to straight-up win probability.
Basic reasoning ▾

We're picking Jacksonville Jaguars.

Our model gives JAX a predicted 63.5% chance to win outright against HOU. No sportsbook spread was available for this game, so the pick is based on who's more likely to win outright.

JAX also grades out as the better team this season, which backs up the pick.

This pick is worth 31 confidence points this week — the more points assigned, the more confident the model is.

Reasoning & ESPN stats ▾

Reasoning

  1. Regressed preseason ratings from the 2025 season, pulled toward league-average (regression retains 65% of the raw historical rating): JAX +3.11 vs HOU +2.47.
  2. Blended with this season's to-date rating (72.0% weight for JAX, 72.0% for HOU, based on games played so far) → model rating of JAX +3.93 vs HOU +0.07.
  3. Add home-field edge (~+0.00 pts, neutral site) → predicted margin of +3.9 pts for JAX.
  4. Predicted margin converts to a straight-up win probability of 63.5% JAX / 36.5% HOU (source: ESPN model).
  5. No sportsbook spread was available for this game, so ATS probability could not be computed.
  6. Decision basis: straight-up fallback — requested ATS mode but no spread was available for this game.
Projected score: HOU 22.1 – JAX 25.9

ESPN team stats

JAX (home)HOU (away)
Record 13-4 12-5
Win % 76.5% 70.6%
Points for / game 27.9 23.8
Points against / game 19.8 17.4
Avg scoring margin +8.1 +6.4
Strength of schedule -0.388 +0.721
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) #6 of 32 (+4.8) #15 of 32 (+0.5)
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) #8 of 32 (+2.3) #1 of 32 (+6.0)
Season rating (SOS-adjusted) +4.78 +3.79
Regressed preseason rating +3.11 +2.47
Blended rating (used by model) +3.93 +0.07
In-season blend weight 72.0% 72.0%
JAX (home)HOU (away)
Record 4-2 2-4
Win % 66.7% 33.3%
Points for / game 25.7 24.0
Points against / game 17.3 23.8
Avg scoring margin +8.3 +0.2
Strength of schedule -0.013 +0.193
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) #17 of 32 (+0.5) #10 of 32 (+1.9)
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) #3 of 32 (+3.5) #15 of 32 (+0.6)
Team rating (SOS-adjusted) +4.25 -0.87
#45 · 30 pts Win % (no spread)

NO @ NYG

New Orleans Saints at New York Giants
Pick New York Giants
Win % (no spread)
61.8% (NYG)
Market spread
No line
Books
—
No sportsbook spread available for this game; fell back to straight-up win probability.
Basic reasoning ▾

We're picking New York Giants.

Our model gives NYG a predicted 61.8% chance to win outright against NO. No sportsbook spread was available for this game, so the pick is based on who's more likely to win outright.

NYG also grades out as the better team this season, which backs up the pick.

This pick is worth 30 confidence points this week — the more points assigned, the more confident the model is.

Reasoning & ESPN stats ▾

Reasoning

  1. Regressed preseason ratings from the 2025 season, pulled toward league-average (regression retains 65% of the raw historical rating): NYG -1.82 vs NO -1.80.
  2. Blended with this season's to-date rating (72.0% weight for NYG, 72.0% for NO, based on games played so far) → model rating of NYG -0.69 vs NO -2.32.
  3. Add home-field edge (~+1.75 pts) → predicted margin of +3.4 pts for NYG.
  4. Predicted margin converts to a straight-up win probability of 61.8% NYG / 38.2% NO (source: ESPN model).
  5. No sportsbook spread was available for this game, so ATS probability could not be computed.
  6. Decision basis: straight-up fallback — requested ATS mode but no spread was available for this game.
Projected score: NO 22.3 – NYG 25.7

ESPN team stats

NYG (home)NO (away)
Record 4-13 6-11
Win % 23.5% 35.3%
Points for / game 22.4 18.0
Points against / game 25.8 22.5
Avg scoring margin -3.4 -4.5
Strength of schedule +0.294 -0.378
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) #18 of 32 (-0.6) #28 of 32 (-4.5)
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) #26 of 32 (-2.5) #17 of 32 (+0.2)
Season rating (SOS-adjusted) -2.79 -2.77
Regressed preseason rating -1.82 -1.80
Blended rating (used by model) -0.69 -2.32
In-season blend weight 72.0% 72.0%
NYG (home)NO (away)
Record 3-2-1 2-4
Win % 58.3% 33.3%
Points for / game 22.7 25.3
Points against / game 23.3 29.7
Avg scoring margin -0.7 -4.3
Strength of schedule -3.511 +1.673
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) #11 of 32 (+1.8) #9 of 32 (+2.5)
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) #22 of 32 (-0.8) #25 of 32 (-3.1)
Team rating (SOS-adjusted) -0.25 -2.52
#51 · 24 pts Win % (no spread)

BUF @ LV

Buffalo Bills at Las Vegas Raiders
Pick Buffalo Bills
Win % (no spread)
59.7% (BUF)
Market spread
No line
Books
—
No sportsbook spread available for this game; fell back to straight-up win probability.
Basic reasoning ▾

We're picking Buffalo Bills.

Our model gives BUF a predicted 59.7% chance to win outright against LV. No sportsbook spread was available for this game, so the pick is based on who's more likely to win outright.

BUF also grades out as the better team this season, which backs up the pick.

This pick is worth 24 confidence points this week — the more points assigned, the more confident the model is.

Reasoning & ESPN stats ▾

Reasoning

  1. Regressed preseason ratings from the 2025 season, pulled toward league-average (regression retains 65% of the raw historical rating): LV -4.16 vs BUF +2.54.
  2. Blended with this season's to-date rating (72.0% weight for LV, 72.0% for BUF, based on games played so far) → model rating of LV -1.22 vs BUF +3.29.
  3. Add home-field edge (~+1.75 pts) → predicted margin of -2.8 pts for LV.
  4. Predicted margin converts to a straight-up win probability of 40.3% LV / 59.7% BUF (source: ESPN model).
  5. No sportsbook spread was available for this game, so ATS probability could not be computed.
  6. Decision basis: straight-up fallback — requested ATS mode but no spread was available for this game.
Projected score: BUF 25.4 – LV 22.6

ESPN team stats

LV (home)BUF (away)
Record 3-14 12-5
Win % 17.6% 70.6%
Points for / game 14.2 28.3
Points against / game 25.4 21.5
Avg scoring margin -11.2 +6.8
Strength of schedule +0.805 -0.813
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) #32 of 32 (-9.5) #3 of 32 (+5.3)
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) #25 of 32 (-2.2) #16 of 32 (+0.7)
Season rating (SOS-adjusted) -6.39 +3.90
Regressed preseason rating -4.16 +2.54
Blended rating (used by model) -1.22 +3.29
In-season blend weight 72.0% 72.0%
LV (home)BUF (away)
Record 3-3 5-1
Win % 50.0% 83.3%
Points for / game 27.0 32.8
Points against / game 27.0 28.5
Avg scoring margin +0.0 +4.3
Strength of schedule -0.817 -0.903
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) #7 of 32 (+3.4) #2 of 32 (+9.7)
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) #29 of 32 (-3.9) #28 of 32 (-3.8)
Team rating (SOS-adjusted) -0.08 +3.59
#55 · 20 pts Win % (no spread)

CHI @ ATL

Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons
Pick Chicago Bears
Win % (no spread)
57.3% (CHI)
Market spread
No line
Books
—
No sportsbook spread available for this game; fell back to straight-up win probability.
Basic reasoning ▾

We're picking Chicago Bears.

Our model gives CHI a predicted 57.3% chance to win outright against ATL. No sportsbook spread was available for this game, so the pick is based on who's more likely to win outright.

CHI also grades out as the better team this season, which backs up the pick.

This pick is worth 20 confidence points this week — the more points assigned, the more confident the model is.

Reasoning & ESPN stats ▾

Reasoning

  1. Regressed preseason ratings from the 2025 season, pulled toward league-average (regression retains 65% of the raw historical rating): ATL -0.89 vs CHI +0.91.
  2. Blended with this season's to-date rating (72.0% weight for ATL, 72.0% for CHI, based on games played so far) → model rating of ATL -1.38 vs CHI +2.43.
  3. Add home-field edge (~+1.75 pts) → predicted margin of -2.1 pts for ATL.
  4. Predicted margin converts to a straight-up win probability of 42.7% ATL / 57.3% CHI (source: ESPN model).
  5. No sportsbook spread was available for this game, so ATS probability could not be computed.
  6. Decision basis: straight-up fallback — requested ATS mode but no spread was available for this game.
Projected score: CHI 25.0 – ATL 23.0

ESPN team stats

ATL (home)CHI (away)
Record 8-9 11-6
Win % 47.1% 64.7%
Points for / game 20.8 25.9
Points against / game 23.6 24.4
Avg scoring margin -2.8 +1.5
Strength of schedule -0.166 -0.669
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) #24 of 32 (-2.3) #9 of 32 (+3.0)
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) #19 of 32 (-0.8) #22 of 32 (-1.7)
Season rating (SOS-adjusted) -1.37 +1.41
Regressed preseason rating -0.89 +0.91
Blended rating (used by model) -1.38 +2.43
In-season blend weight 72.0% 72.0%
ATL (home)CHI (away)
Record 2-4 4-2
Win % 33.3% 66.7%
Points for / game 23.7 25.0
Points against / game 25.5 19.8
Avg scoring margin -1.8 +5.2
Strength of schedule +1.390 +0.543
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) #16 of 32 (+0.6) #18 of 32 (+0.4)
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) #20 of 32 (-0.7) #7 of 32 (+1.9)
Team rating (SOS-adjusted) -1.56 +3.01
#59 · 16 pts Win % (no spread)

PIT @ TB

Pittsburgh Steelers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Pick Pittsburgh Steelers
Win % (no spread)
56.2% (PIT)
Market spread
No line
Books
—
No sportsbook spread available for this game; fell back to straight-up win probability.
Basic reasoning ▾

We're picking Pittsburgh Steelers.

Our model gives PIT a predicted 56.2% chance to win outright against TB. No sportsbook spread was available for this game, so the pick is based on who's more likely to win outright.

PIT also grades out as the better team this season, which backs up the pick.

This pick is worth 16 confidence points this week — the more points assigned, the more confident the model is.

Reasoning & ESPN stats ▾

Reasoning

  1. Regressed preseason ratings from the 2025 season, pulled toward league-average (regression retains 65% of the raw historical rating): TB -0.57 vs PIT +0.48.
  2. Blended with this season's to-date rating (72.0% weight for TB, 72.0% for PIT, based on games played so far) → model rating of TB -2.36 vs PIT +1.12.
  3. Add home-field edge (~+1.75 pts) → predicted margin of -1.7 pts for TB.
  4. Predicted margin converts to a straight-up win probability of 43.8% TB / 56.2% PIT (source: ESPN model).
  5. No sportsbook spread was available for this game, so ATS probability could not be computed.
  6. Decision basis: straight-up fallback — requested ATS mode but no spread was available for this game.
Projected score: PIT 24.9 – TB 23.1

ESPN team stats

TB (home)PIT (away)
Record 8-9 10-7
Win % 47.1% 58.8%
Points for / game 22.4 23.4
Points against / game 24.2 22.8
Avg scoring margin -1.8 +0.6
Strength of schedule +0.399 +0.207
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) #19 of 32 (-1.4) #14 of 32 (+0.6)
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) #21 of 32 (-1.1) #14 of 32 (+1.0)
Season rating (SOS-adjusted) -0.87 +0.74
Regressed preseason rating -0.57 +0.48
Blended rating (used by model) -2.36 +1.12
In-season blend weight 72.0% 72.0%
TB (home)PIT (away)
Record 1-5 4-2
Win % 16.7% 66.7%
Points for / game 19.8 22.8
Points against / game 23.0 21.3
Avg scoring margin -3.2 +1.5
Strength of schedule +1.619 -0.600
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) #25 of 32 (-4.6) #21 of 32 (-0.7)
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) #21 of 32 (-0.8) #14 of 32 (+0.6)
Team rating (SOS-adjusted) -3.06 +1.37
#63 · 12 pts Win % (no spread)

CAR @ PHI

Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles
Pick Carolina Panthers
Win % (no spread)
54.1% (CAR)
Market spread
No line
Books
—
No sportsbook spread available for this game; fell back to straight-up win probability.
Basic reasoning ▾

We're picking Carolina Panthers.

Our model gives CAR a predicted 54.1% chance to win outright against PHI. No sportsbook spread was available for this game, so the pick is based on who's more likely to win outright.

CAR also grades out as the better team this season, which backs up the pick.

This pick is worth 12 confidence points this week — the more points assigned, the more confident the model is.

Reasoning & ESPN stats ▾

Reasoning

  1. Regressed preseason ratings from the 2025 season, pulled toward league-average (regression retains 65% of the raw historical rating): PHI +1.33 vs CAR -1.21.
  2. Blended with this season's to-date rating (72.0% weight for PHI, 60.0% for CAR, based on games played so far) → model rating of PHI -1.92 vs CAR +0.98.
  3. Add home-field edge (~+1.75 pts) → predicted margin of -1.2 pts for PHI.
  4. Predicted margin converts to a straight-up win probability of 45.9% PHI / 54.1% CAR (source: ESPN model).
  5. No sportsbook spread was available for this game, so ATS probability could not be computed.
  6. Decision basis: straight-up fallback — requested ATS mode but no spread was available for this game.
Projected score: CAR 24.6 – PHI 23.4

ESPN team stats

PHI (home)CAR (away)
Record 11-6 8-9
Win % 64.7% 47.1%
Points for / game 22.3 18.3
Points against / game 19.1 22.4
Avg scoring margin +3.2 -4.1
Strength of schedule -0.181 +0.333
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) #17 of 32 (+0.2) #27 of 32 (-4.3)
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) #4 of 32 (+4.5) #13 of 32 (+1.3)
Season rating (SOS-adjusted) +2.05 -1.86
Regressed preseason rating +1.33 -1.21
Blended rating (used by model) -1.92 +0.98
In-season blend weight 72.0% 60.0%
PHI (home)CAR (away)
Record 2-4 3-2
Win % 33.3% 60.0%
Points for / game 17.7 29.2
Points against / game 22.8 24.6
Avg scoring margin -5.2 +4.6
Strength of schedule -0.112 -0.086
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) #26 of 32 (-5.6) #4 of 32 (+6.0)
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) #16 of 32 (+0.2) #23 of 32 (-1.1)
Team rating (SOS-adjusted) -3.19 +2.44
#64 · 11 pts Predicted ATS cover %

WSH @ SF

Washington Commanders at San Francisco 49ers
Pick San Francisco 49ers -7.5
Predicted ATS cover %
53.9% (SF)
Market spread
SF -7.5 / WSH +7.5
Books ▾
9
Book Spread O/U Last Updated
DraftKingsSF -7.552.510/18 - 11:50 PM (CDT) / 12:50 AM (EDT)
BetUSSF -7.552.010/18 - 11:49 PM (CDT) / 12:49 AM (EDT)
FanDuelSF -7.551.510/18 - 11:50 PM (CDT) / 12:50 AM (EDT)
LowVig.agSF -7.552.010/18 - 11:49 PM (CDT) / 12:49 AM (EDT)
BetOnline.agSF -7.552.010/18 - 11:49 PM (CDT) / 12:49 AM (EDT)
BetRiversSF -7.551.510/18 - 11:50 PM (CDT) / 12:50 AM (EDT)
MyBookie.agSF -7.552.010/18 - 11:50 PM (CDT) / 12:50 AM (EDT)
BetMGMSF -7.552.010/18 - 11:49 PM (CDT) / 12:49 AM (EDT)
BovadaSF -7.552.510/18 - 11:48 PM (CDT) / 12:48 AM (EDT)
Basic reasoning ▾

We're picking San Francisco 49ers -7.5.

Our model gives SF a predicted 53.9% chance of covering that spread against WSH. SF is favored by 7.5 points, and our model thinks they're good enough to win by more than that — giving them room to cover even if the game is a bit closer than expected.

SF also grades out as the better team this season, which backs up the pick.

This pick is worth 11 confidence points this week — the more points assigned, the more confident the model is.

Reasoning & ESPN stats ▾

Reasoning

  1. Regressed preseason ratings from the 2025 season, pulled toward league-average (regression retains 65% of the raw historical rating): SF +1.80 vs WSH -2.21.
  2. Blended with this season's to-date rating (60.0% weight for SF, 60.0% for WSH, based on games played so far) → model rating of SF +5.19 vs WSH -3.30.
  3. Add home-field edge (~+1.75 pts) → predicted margin of +10.2 pts for SF.
  4. Predicted margin converts to a straight-up win probability of 79.9% SF / 20.1% WSH (source: ESPN model + market).
  5. Consensus spread from 9 book(s): SF -7.5 / WSH +7.5.
  6. Model margin blended 40% toward the market's implied margin (+7.5 pts for SF) vs. spread → cover probability of 53.9% SF / 46.1% WSH.
  7. Decision basis: ATS — pick made on cover probability, not just who wins outright.
Projected score: WSH 18.9 – SF 29.1

ESPN team stats

SF (home)WSH (away)
Record 12-5 5-12
Win % 70.6% 29.4%
Points for / game 25.7 20.9
Points against / game 21.8 26.5
Avg scoring margin +3.9 -5.6
Strength of schedule +0.327 +0.160
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) #10 of 32 (+2.3) #23 of 32 (-2.1)
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) #12 of 32 (+1.4) #27 of 32 (-3.2)
Season rating (SOS-adjusted) +2.77 -3.40
Regressed preseason rating +1.80 -2.21
Blended rating (used by model) +5.19 -3.30
In-season blend weight 60.0% 60.0%
SF (home)WSH (away)
Record 5-0 1-3-1
Win % 100.0% 30.0%
Points for / game 30.8 23.0
Points against / game 18.6 29.8
Avg scoring margin +12.2 -6.8
Strength of schedule -2.676 -1.155
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) #3 of 32 (+7.1) #15 of 32 (+0.9)
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) #11 of 32 (+1.2) #32 of 32 (-6.3)
Team rating (SOS-adjusted) +7.46 -4.03
#68 · 7 pts Win % (no spread)

BAL @ CLE

Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns
Pick Baltimore Ravens
Win % (no spread)
52.9% (BAL)
Market spread
No line
Books
—
No sportsbook spread available for this game; fell back to straight-up win probability.
Basic reasoning ▾

We're picking Baltimore Ravens.

Our model gives BAL a predicted 52.9% chance to win outright against CLE. No sportsbook spread was available for this game, so the pick is based on who's more likely to win outright.

BAL also grades out as the better team this season, which backs up the pick.

This pick is worth 7 confidence points this week — the more points assigned, the more confident the model is.

Reasoning & ESPN stats ▾

Reasoning

  1. Regressed preseason ratings from the 2025 season, pulled toward league-average (regression retains 65% of the raw historical rating): CLE -2.39 vs BAL +0.34.
  2. Blended with this season's to-date rating (72.0% weight for CLE, 72.0% for BAL, based on games played so far) → model rating of CLE -0.85 vs BAL +1.72.
  3. Add home-field edge (~+1.75 pts) → predicted margin of -0.8 pts for CLE.
  4. Predicted margin converts to a straight-up win probability of 47.1% CLE / 52.9% BAL (source: ESPN model).
  5. No sportsbook spread was available for this game, so ATS probability could not be computed.
  6. Decision basis: straight-up fallback — requested ATS mode but no spread was available for this game.
Projected score: BAL 24.4 – CLE 23.6

ESPN team stats

CLE (home)BAL (away)
Record 5-12 8-9
Win % 29.4% 47.1%
Points for / game 16.4 24.9
Points against / game 22.3 23.4
Avg scoring margin -5.9 +1.5
Strength of schedule -0.485 +0.237
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) #30 of 32 (-5.8) #11 of 32 (+1.6)
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) #15 of 32 (+0.9) #18 of 32 (+0.2)
Season rating (SOS-adjusted) -3.67 +0.52
Regressed preseason rating -2.39 +0.34
Blended rating (used by model) -0.85 +1.72
In-season blend weight 72.0% 72.0%
CLE (home)BAL (away)
Record 4-2 4-2
Win % 66.7% 66.7%
Points for / game 17.7 26.0
Points against / game 20.3 22.0
Avg scoring margin -2.7 +4.0
Strength of schedule +1.038 -2.537
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) #29 of 32 (-6.2) #6 of 32 (+3.9)
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) #5 of 32 (+2.8) #19 of 32 (-0.0)
Team rating (SOS-adjusted) -0.26 +2.25
#69 · 6 pts Win % (no spread)

SEA @ DEN

Seattle Seahawks at Denver Broncos
Pick Denver Broncos
Win % (no spread)
51.0% (DEN)
Market spread
No line
Books
—
No sportsbook spread available for this game; fell back to straight-up win probability.
Basic reasoning ▾

We're picking Denver Broncos.

Our model gives DEN a predicted 51.0% chance to win outright against SEA. No sportsbook spread was available for this game, so the pick is based on who's more likely to win outright.

SEA grades out as the stronger team by rating alone, but DEN is at home, and a 1.8-point home-field edge is enough to flip our model's win probability in their favor.

This pick is worth 6 confidence points this week — the more points assigned, the more confident the model is.

Reasoning & ESPN stats ▾

Reasoning

  1. Regressed preseason ratings from the 2025 season, pulled toward league-average (regression retains 65% of the raw historical rating): DEN +2.45 vs SEA +4.16.
  2. Blended with this season's to-date rating (72.0% weight for DEN, 72.0% for SEA, based on games played so far) → model rating of DEN +0.86 vs SEA +2.33.
  3. Add home-field edge (~+1.75 pts) → predicted margin of +0.3 pts for DEN.
  4. Predicted margin converts to a straight-up win probability of 51.0% DEN / 49.0% SEA (source: ESPN model).
  5. No sportsbook spread was available for this game, so ATS probability could not be computed.
  6. Decision basis: straight-up fallback — requested ATS mode but no spread was available for this game.
Projected score: SEA 23.9 – DEN 24.1

ESPN team stats

DEN (home)SEA (away)
Record 14-3 14-3
Win % 82.3% 82.3%
Points for / game 23.6 28.4
Points against / game 18.3 17.2
Avg scoring margin +5.3 +11.2
Strength of schedule -1.338 +0.021
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) #12 of 32 (+1.2) #4 of 32 (+5.2)
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) #6 of 32 (+3.2) #2 of 32 (+5.7)
Season rating (SOS-adjusted) +3.77 +6.41
Regressed preseason rating +2.45 +4.16
Blended rating (used by model) +0.86 +2.33
In-season blend weight 72.0% 72.0%
DEN (home)SEA (away)
Record 4-2 3-3
Win % 66.7% 50.0%
Points for / game 19.0 24.7
Points against / game 20.8 20.3
Avg scoring margin -1.8 +4.3
Strength of schedule +2.354 -1.014
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) #27 of 32 (-5.9) #13 of 32 (+1.4)
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) #4 of 32 (+3.5) #9 of 32 (+1.5)
Team rating (SOS-adjusted) +0.24 +1.61
League / Mode
COLLEGE · ats
Slate week
2026-10-14 – 2026-10-19
Games
60
Odds API
Enabled
ATS coverage
0 / 60
API credits left
467
Last call cost
3
#1 · 74 pts Win % (no spread)

KENT @ USF

Kent State Golden Flashes at South Florida Bulls
Pick South Florida Bulls
Win % (no spread)
91.4% (USF)
Market spread
No line
Books
—
No sportsbook spread available for this game; fell back to straight-up win probability.
Basic reasoning ▾

We're picking South Florida Bulls.

Our model gives USF a predicted 91.4% chance to win outright against KENT. No sportsbook spread was available for this game, so the pick is based on who's more likely to win outright.

USF also grades out as the better team this season, which backs up the pick.

This pick is worth 74 confidence points this week — the more points assigned, the more confident the model is.

Reasoning & ESPN stats ▾

Reasoning

  1. Regressed preseason ratings from the 2025 season, pulled toward league-average (regression retains 65% of the raw historical rating): USF +5.46 vs KENT -4.44.
  2. Blended with this season's to-date rating (85.0% weight for USF, 85.0% for KENT, based on games played so far) → model rating of USF +3.34 vs KENT -10.73.
  3. Add home-field edge (~+2.50 pts) → predicted margin of +16.6 pts for USF.
  4. Predicted margin converts to a straight-up win probability of 91.4% USF / 8.6% KENT (source: ESPN model).
  5. No sportsbook spread was available for this game, so ATS probability could not be computed.
  6. Decision basis: straight-up fallback — requested ATS mode but no spread was available for this game.
Projected score: KENT 15.7 – USF 32.3

ESPN team stats

USF (home)KENT (away)
Record 9-3 5-7
Win % 75.0% 41.7%
Points for / game 43.0 21.2
Points against / game 23.3 33.6
Avg scoring margin +19.7 -12.3
Strength of schedule -0.471 -0.796
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) #3 of 136 (+14.9) #105 of 136 (-4.9)
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) #42 of 136 (+3.1) #135 of 136 (-10.9)
Season rating (SOS-adjusted) +8.41 -6.83
Regressed preseason rating +5.46 -4.44
Blended rating (used by model) +3.34 -10.73
In-season blend weight 85.0% 85.0%
USF (home)KENT (away)
Record 5-2 2-5
Win % 71.4% 28.6%
Points for / game 26.6 12.0
Points against / game 15.1 32.0
Avg scoring margin +11.4 -20.0
Strength of schedule -3.571 +1.751
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) #88 of 138 (-2.9) #137 of 138 (-18.2)
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) #18 of 138 (+7.5) #117 of 138 (-6.7)
Team rating (SOS-adjusted) +2.97 -11.84
#2 · 73 pts Win % (no spread)

FSU @ MIA

Florida State Seminoles at Miami Hurricanes
Pick Miami Hurricanes
Win % (no spread)
90.7% (MIA)
Market spread
No line
Books
—
No sportsbook spread available for this game; fell back to straight-up win probability.
Basic reasoning ▾

We're picking Miami Hurricanes.

Our model gives MIA a predicted 90.7% chance to win outright against FSU. No sportsbook spread was available for this game, so the pick is based on who's more likely to win outright.

MIA also grades out as the better team this season, which backs up the pick.

This pick is worth 73 confidence points this week — the more points assigned, the more confident the model is.

Reasoning & ESPN stats ▾

Reasoning

  1. Regressed preseason ratings from the 2025 season, pulled toward league-average (regression retains 65% of the raw historical rating): MIA +5.89 vs FSU +1.95.
  2. Blended with this season's to-date rating (85.0% weight for MIA, 85.0% for FSU, based on games played so far) → model rating of MIA +13.10 vs FSU -0.36.
  3. Add home-field edge (~+2.50 pts) → predicted margin of +16.0 pts for MIA.
  4. Predicted margin converts to a straight-up win probability of 90.7% MIA / 9.3% FSU (source: ESPN model).
  5. No sportsbook spread was available for this game, so ATS probability could not be computed.
  6. Decision basis: straight-up fallback — requested ATS mode but no spread was available for this game.
Projected score: FSU 16.0 – MIA 32.0

ESPN team stats

MIA (home)FSU (away)
Record 10-2 5-7
Win % 83.3% 41.7%
Points for / game 34.1 33.0
Points against / game 13.8 22.0
Avg scoring margin +20.2 +11.0
Strength of schedule +1.002 +0.592
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) #25 of 136 (+5.8) #56 of 136 (+1.7)
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) #4 of 136 (+11.9) #53 of 136 (+0.9)
Season rating (SOS-adjusted) +9.06 +3.00
Regressed preseason rating +5.89 +1.95
Blended rating (used by model) +13.10 -0.36
In-season blend weight 85.0% 85.0%
MIA (home)FSU (away)
Record 6-0 3-4
Win % 100.0% 42.9%
Points for / game 48.5 31.6
Points against / game 14.0 27.9
Avg scoring margin +34.5 +3.7
Strength of schedule -2.818 +4.736
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) #2 of 138 (+17.5) #53 of 138 (+2.2)
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) #16 of 138 (+7.8) #70 of 138 (+0.2)
Team rating (SOS-adjusted) +14.38 -0.77
#3 · 72 pts Win % (no spread)

UNM @ HAW

New Mexico Lobos at Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors
Pick New Mexico Lobos
Win % (no spread)
88.0% (UNM)
Market spread
No line
Books
—
No sportsbook spread available for this game; fell back to straight-up win probability.
Basic reasoning ▾

We're picking New Mexico Lobos.

Our model gives UNM a predicted 88.0% chance to win outright against HAW. No sportsbook spread was available for this game, so the pick is based on who's more likely to win outright.

UNM also grades out as the better team this season, which backs up the pick.

This pick is worth 72 confidence points this week — the more points assigned, the more confident the model is.

Reasoning & ESPN stats ▾

Reasoning

  1. Regressed preseason ratings from the 2025 season, pulled toward league-average (regression retains 65% of the raw historical rating): HAW +1.00 vs UNM +1.40.
  2. Blended with this season's to-date rating (85.0% weight for HAW, 85.0% for UNM, based on games played so far) → model rating of HAW -7.14 vs UNM +9.27.
  3. Add home-field edge (~+2.50 pts) → predicted margin of -13.9 pts for HAW.
  4. Predicted margin converts to a straight-up win probability of 12.0% HAW / 88.0% UNM (source: ESPN model).
  5. No sportsbook spread was available for this game, so ATS probability could not be computed.
  6. Decision basis: straight-up fallback — requested ATS mode but no spread was available for this game.
Projected score: UNM 31.0 – HAW 17.0

ESPN team stats

HAW (home)UNM (away)
Record 8-4 9-3
Win % 66.7% 75.0%
Points for / game 28.5 27.9
Points against / game 23.5 22.5
Avg scoring margin +5.0 +5.4
Strength of schedule -2.284 -2.218
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) #35 of 136 (+4.2) #48 of 136 (+2.4)
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) #73 of 136 (-1.0) #49 of 136 (+2.0)
Season rating (SOS-adjusted) +1.54 +2.15
Regressed preseason rating +1.00 +1.40
Blended rating (used by model) -7.14 +9.27
In-season blend weight 85.0% 85.0%
HAW (home)UNM (away)
Record 1-6 5-1
Win % 14.3% 83.3%
Points for / game 15.7 39.7
Points against / game 25.0 10.5
Avg scoring margin -9.3 +29.2
Strength of schedule -2.125 -7.593
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) #118 of 138 (-8.0) #16 of 138 (+9.7)
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) #90 of 138 (-2.1) #31 of 138 (+4.8)
Team rating (SOS-adjusted) -8.58 +10.66
#4 · 71 pts Win % (no spread)

WSU @ ORST

Washington State Cougars at Oregon State Beavers
Pick Oregon State Beavers
Win % (no spread)
87.3% (ORST)
Market spread
No line
Books
—
No sportsbook spread available for this game; fell back to straight-up win probability.
Basic reasoning ▾

We're picking Oregon State Beavers.

Our model gives ORST a predicted 87.3% chance to win outright against WSU. No sportsbook spread was available for this game, so the pick is based on who's more likely to win outright.

ORST also grades out as the better team this season, which backs up the pick.

This pick is worth 71 confidence points this week — the more points assigned, the more confident the model is.

Reasoning & ESPN stats ▾

Reasoning

  1. Regressed preseason ratings from the 2025 season, pulled toward league-average (regression retains 65% of the raw historical rating): ORST -4.96 vs WSU -0.28.
  2. Blended with this season's to-date rating (85.0% weight for ORST, 85.0% for WSU, based on games played so far) → model rating of ORST +4.88 vs WSU -6.11.
  3. Add home-field edge (~+2.50 pts) → predicted margin of +13.5 pts for ORST.
  4. Predicted margin converts to a straight-up win probability of 87.3% ORST / 12.7% WSU (source: ESPN model).
  5. No sportsbook spread was available for this game, so ATS probability could not be computed.
  6. Decision basis: straight-up fallback — requested ATS mode but no spread was available for this game.
Projected score: WSU 17.3 – ORST 30.7

ESPN team stats

ORST (home)WSU (away)
Record 2-10 6-6
Win % 16.7% 50.0%
Points for / game 18.2 21.6
Points against / game 29.4 20.2
Avg scoring margin -11.2 +1.4
Strength of schedule +0.984 +2.931
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) #132 of 136 (-11.6) #108 of 136 (-5.8)
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) #102 of 136 (-4.4) #15 of 136 (+6.7)
Season rating (SOS-adjusted) -7.62 -0.43
Regressed preseason rating -4.96 -0.28
Blended rating (used by model) +4.88 -6.11
In-season blend weight 85.0% 85.0%
ORST (home)WSU (away)
Record 5-2 1-6
Win % 71.4% 14.3%
Points for / game 42.7 20.1
Points against / game 23.1 27.1
Avg scoring margin +19.6 -7.0
Strength of schedule -3.399 +2.144
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) #1 of 138 (+18.0) #128 of 138 (-11.4)
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) #73 of 138 (-0.3) #85 of 138 (-1.4)
Team rating (SOS-adjusted) +6.61 -7.14
#5 · 70 pts Win % (no spread)

ASU @ TTU

Arizona State Sun Devils at Texas Tech Red Raiders
Pick Texas Tech Red Raiders
Win % (no spread)
86.9% (TTU)
Market spread
No line
Books
—
No sportsbook spread available for this game; fell back to straight-up win probability.
Basic reasoning ▾

We're picking Texas Tech Red Raiders.

Our model gives TTU a predicted 86.9% chance to win outright against ASU. No sportsbook spread was available for this game, so the pick is based on who's more likely to win outright.

TTU also grades out as the better team this season, which backs up the pick.

This pick is worth 70 confidence points this week — the more points assigned, the more confident the model is.

Reasoning & ESPN stats ▾

Reasoning

  1. Regressed preseason ratings from the 2025 season, pulled toward league-average (regression retains 65% of the raw historical rating): TTU +9.17 vs ASU +0.37.
  2. Blended with this season's to-date rating (85.0% weight for TTU, 85.0% for ASU, based on games played so far) → model rating of TTU +8.69 vs ASU -2.03.
  3. Add home-field edge (~+2.50 pts) → predicted margin of +13.2 pts for TTU.
  4. Predicted margin converts to a straight-up win probability of 86.9% TTU / 13.1% ASU (source: ESPN model).
  5. No sportsbook spread was available for this game, so ATS probability could not be computed.
  6. Decision basis: straight-up fallback — requested ATS mode but no spread was available for this game.
Projected score: ASU 17.4 – TTU 30.6

ESPN team stats

TTU (home)ASU (away)
Record 12-1 8-4
Win % 92.3% 66.7%
Points for / game 42.5 24.7
Points against / game 10.9 23.0
Avg scoring margin +31.5 +1.7
Strength of schedule -0.838 +2.342
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) #4 of 136 (+14.6) #93 of 136 (-2.5)
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) #3 of 136 (+12.4) #21 of 136 (+6.0)
Season rating (SOS-adjusted) +14.10 +0.58
Regressed preseason rating +9.17 +0.37
Blended rating (used by model) +8.69 -2.03
In-season blend weight 85.0% 85.0%
TTU (home)ASU (away)
Record 6-0 3-3
Win % 100.0% 50.0%
Points for / game 37.8 31.3
Points against / game 17.7 32.0
Avg scoring margin +20.2 -0.7
Strength of schedule -0.218 +1.762
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) #6 of 138 (+13.1) #92 of 138 (-3.8)
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) #28 of 138 (+5.3) #128 of 138 (-9.5)
Team rating (SOS-adjusted) +8.61 -2.46
#6 · 69 pts Win % (no spread)

UTAH @ COLO

Utah Utes at Colorado Buffaloes
Pick Utah Utes
Win % (no spread)
85.7% (UTAH)
Market spread
No line
Books
—
No sportsbook spread available for this game; fell back to straight-up win probability.
Basic reasoning ▾

We're picking Utah Utes.

Our model gives UTAH a predicted 85.7% chance to win outright against COLO. No sportsbook spread was available for this game, so the pick is based on who's more likely to win outright.

UTAH also grades out as the better team this season, which backs up the pick.

This pick is worth 69 confidence points this week — the more points assigned, the more confident the model is.

Reasoning & ESPN stats ▾

Reasoning

  1. Regressed preseason ratings from the 2025 season, pulled toward league-average (regression retains 65% of the raw historical rating): COLO -4.12 vs UTAH +6.44.
  2. Blended with this season's to-date rating (85.0% weight for COLO, 85.0% for UTAH, based on games played so far) → model rating of COLO -5.21 vs UTAH +9.79.
  3. Add home-field edge (~+2.50 pts) → predicted margin of -12.5 pts for COLO.
  4. Predicted margin converts to a straight-up win probability of 14.3% COLO / 85.7% UTAH (source: ESPN model).
  5. No sportsbook spread was available for this game, so ATS probability could not be computed.
  6. Decision basis: straight-up fallback — requested ATS mode but no spread was available for this game.
Projected score: UTAH 30.3 – COLO 17.7

ESPN team stats

COLO (home)UTAH (away)
Record 3-9 10-2
Win % 25.0% 83.3%
Points for / game 20.9 41.1
Points against / game 30.5 18.7
Avg scoring margin -9.6 +22.4
Strength of schedule +1.946 -0.599
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) #110 of 136 (-6.5) #6 of 136 (+12.5)
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) #92 of 136 (-3.2) #28 of 136 (+5.0)
Season rating (SOS-adjusted) -6.35 +9.91
Regressed preseason rating -4.12 +6.44
Blended rating (used by model) -5.21 +9.79
In-season blend weight 85.0% 85.0%
COLO (home)UTAH (away)
Record 2-4 6-0
Win % 33.3% 100.0%
Points for / game 19.5 40.2
Points against / game 25.7 14.8
Avg scoring margin -6.2 +25.3
Strength of schedule +5.940 -3.931
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) #134 of 138 (-14.4) #28 of 138 (+7.4)
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) #42 of 138 (+3.5) #33 of 138 (+4.6)
Team rating (SOS-adjusted) -5.41 +10.39
#7 · 68 pts Win % (no spread)

LT @ ULM

Louisiana Tech Bulldogs at UL Monroe Warhawks
Pick Louisiana Tech Bulldogs
Win % (no spread)
85.3% (LT)
Market spread
No line
Books
—
No sportsbook spread available for this game; fell back to straight-up win probability.
Basic reasoning ▾

We're picking Louisiana Tech Bulldogs.

Our model gives LT a predicted 85.3% chance to win outright against ULM. No sportsbook spread was available for this game, so the pick is based on who's more likely to win outright.

LT also grades out as the better team this season, which backs up the pick.

This pick is worth 68 confidence points this week — the more points assigned, the more confident the model is.

Reasoning & ESPN stats ▾

Reasoning

  1. Regressed preseason ratings from the 2025 season, pulled toward league-average (regression retains 65% of the raw historical rating): ULM -5.88 vs LT +1.04.
  2. Blended with this season's to-date rating (85.0% weight for ULM, 85.0% for LT, based on games played so far) → model rating of ULM -12.67 vs LT +2.13.
  3. Add home-field edge (~+2.50 pts) → predicted margin of -12.3 pts for ULM.
  4. Predicted margin converts to a straight-up win probability of 14.7% ULM / 85.3% LT (source: ESPN model).
  5. No sportsbook spread was available for this game, so ATS probability could not be computed.
  6. Decision basis: straight-up fallback — requested ATS mode but no spread was available for this game.
Projected score: LT 30.1 – ULM 17.9

ESPN team stats

ULM (home)LT (away)
Record 3-9 7-5
Win % 25.0% 58.3%
Points for / game 16.6 27.7
Points against / game 31.9 21.3
Avg scoring margin -15.3 +6.3
Strength of schedule -0.831 -2.434
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) #126 of 136 (-9.9) #49 of 136 (+2.4)
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) #128 of 136 (-7.7) #52 of 136 (+1.6)
Season rating (SOS-adjusted) -9.04 +1.60
Regressed preseason rating -5.88 +1.04
Blended rating (used by model) -12.67 +2.13
In-season blend weight 85.0% 85.0%
ULM (home)LT (away)
Record 0-6 4-2
Win % 0.0% 66.7%
Points for / game 20.0 33.3
Points against / game 41.2 24.5
Avg scoring margin -21.2 +8.8
Strength of schedule +0.032 +1.666
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) #101 of 138 (-5.0) #86 of 138 (-2.8)
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) #134 of 138 (-12.3) #72 of 138 (-0.2)
Team rating (SOS-adjusted) -13.86 +2.32
#8 · 67 pts Win % (no spread)

AUB @ UGA

Auburn Tigers at Georgia Bulldogs
Pick Georgia Bulldogs
Win % (no spread)
83.9% (UGA)
Market spread
No line
Books
—
No sportsbook spread available for this game; fell back to straight-up win probability.
Basic reasoning ▾

We're picking Georgia Bulldogs.

Our model gives UGA a predicted 83.9% chance to win outright against AUB. No sportsbook spread was available for this game, so the pick is based on who's more likely to win outright.

UGA also grades out as the better team this season, which backs up the pick.

This pick is worth 67 confidence points this week — the more points assigned, the more confident the model is.

Reasoning & ESPN stats ▾

Reasoning

  1. Regressed preseason ratings from the 2025 season, pulled toward league-average (regression retains 65% of the raw historical rating): UGA +5.06 vs AUB +0.66.
  2. Blended with this season's to-date rating (85.0% weight for UGA, 85.0% for AUB, based on games played so far) → model rating of UGA +9.74 vs AUB +0.71.
  3. Add home-field edge (~+2.50 pts) → predicted margin of +11.5 pts for UGA.
  4. Predicted margin converts to a straight-up win probability of 83.9% UGA / 16.1% AUB (source: ESPN model).
  5. No sportsbook spread was available for this game, so ATS probability could not be computed.
  6. Decision basis: straight-up fallback — requested ATS mode but no spread was available for this game.
Projected score: AUB 18.2 – UGA 29.8

ESPN team stats

UGA (home)AUB (away)
Record 12-1 5-7
Win % 92.3% 41.7%
Points for / game 31.9 26.8
Points against / game 15.9 20.7
Avg scoring margin +16.0 +6.1
Strength of schedule +1.146 +1.941
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) #29 of 136 (+5.4) #99 of 136 (-3.5)
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) #10 of 136 (+8.8) #19 of 136 (+6.2)
Season rating (SOS-adjusted) +7.79 +1.01
Regressed preseason rating +5.06 +0.66
Blended rating (used by model) +9.74 +0.71
In-season blend weight 85.0% 85.0%
UGA (home)AUB (away)
Record 6-1 4-2
Win % 85.7% 66.7%
Points for / game 43.0 26.8
Points against / game 15.9 21.8
Avg scoring margin +27.1 +5.0
Strength of schedule -2.223 +2.423
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) #7 of 138 (+12.5) #60 of 138 (+1.5)
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) #30 of 138 (+4.8) #27 of 138 (+5.5)
Team rating (SOS-adjusted) +10.57 +0.71
#9 · 66 pts Win % (no spread)

GAST @ JMU

Georgia State Panthers at James Madison Dukes
Pick James Madison Dukes
Win % (no spread)
83.0% (JMU)
Market spread
No line
Books
—
No sportsbook spread available for this game; fell back to straight-up win probability.
Basic reasoning ▾

We're picking James Madison Dukes.

Our model gives JMU a predicted 83.0% chance to win outright against GAST. No sportsbook spread was available for this game, so the pick is based on who's more likely to win outright.

JMU also grades out as the better team this season, which backs up the pick.

This pick is worth 66 confidence points this week — the more points assigned, the more confident the model is.

Reasoning & ESPN stats ▾

Reasoning

  1. Regressed preseason ratings from the 2025 season, pulled toward league-average (regression retains 65% of the raw historical rating): JMU +6.37 vs GAST -6.97.
  2. Blended with this season's to-date rating (85.0% weight for JMU, 85.0% for GAST, based on games played so far) → model rating of JMU +10.46 vs GAST +1.85.
  3. Add home-field edge (~+2.50 pts) → predicted margin of +11.1 pts for JMU.
  4. Predicted margin converts to a straight-up win probability of 83.0% JMU / 17.0% GAST (source: ESPN model).
  5. No sportsbook spread was available for this game, so ATS probability could not be computed.
  6. Decision basis: straight-up fallback — requested ATS mode but no spread was available for this game.
Projected score: GAST 18.4 – JMU 29.6

ESPN team stats

JMU (home)GAST (away)
Record 12-1 1-11
Win % 92.3% 8.3%
Points for / game 37.3 19.8
Points against / game 15.8 37.8
Avg scoring margin +21.5 -18.1
Strength of schedule -1.950 +1.817
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) #7 of 136 (+12.0) #118 of 136 (-7.9)
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) #6 of 136 (+10.4) #132 of 136 (-8.7)
Season rating (SOS-adjusted) +9.80 -10.72
Regressed preseason rating +6.37 -6.97
Blended rating (used by model) +10.46 +1.85
In-season blend weight 85.0% 85.0%
JMU (home)GAST (away)
Record 7-0 4-2
Win % 100.0% 66.7%
Points for / game 42.9 36.5
Points against / game 16.0 24.0
Avg scoring margin +26.9 +12.5
Strength of schedule -2.685 -2.955
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) #14 of 138 (+10.7) #32 of 138 (+6.8)
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) #22 of 138 (+6.5) #110 of 138 (-5.4)
Team rating (SOS-adjusted) +11.18 +3.41
#10 · 65 pts Win % (no spread)

NIU @ WYO

Northern Illinois Huskies at Wyoming Cowboys
Pick Wyoming Cowboys
Win % (no spread)
82.9% (WYO)
Market spread
No line
Books
—
No sportsbook spread available for this game; fell back to straight-up win probability.
Basic reasoning ▾

We're picking Wyoming Cowboys.

Our model gives WYO a predicted 82.9% chance to win outright against NIU. No sportsbook spread was available for this game, so the pick is based on who's more likely to win outright.

WYO also grades out as the better team this season, which backs up the pick.

This pick is worth 65 confidence points this week — the more points assigned, the more confident the model is.

Reasoning & ESPN stats ▾

Reasoning

  1. Regressed preseason ratings from the 2025 season, pulled toward league-average (regression retains 65% of the raw historical rating): WYO -2.77 vs NIU -3.83.
  2. Blended with this season's to-date rating (85.0% weight for WYO, 85.0% for NIU, based on games played so far) → model rating of WYO -3.69 vs NIU -12.26.
  3. Add home-field edge (~+2.50 pts) → predicted margin of +11.1 pts for WYO.
  4. Predicted margin converts to a straight-up win probability of 82.9% WYO / 17.1% NIU (source: ESPN model).
  5. No sportsbook spread was available for this game, so ATS probability could not be computed.
  6. Decision basis: straight-up fallback — requested ATS mode but no spread was available for this game.
Projected score: NIU 18.5 – WYO 29.5

ESPN team stats

WYO (home)NIU (away)
Record 4-8 3-9
Win % 33.3% 25.0%
Points for / game 16.0 17.1
Points against / game 20.5 24.3
Avg scoring margin -4.5 -7.2
Strength of schedule -1.236 -2.213
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) #125 of 136 (-9.8) #114 of 136 (-7.3)
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) #34 of 136 (+3.6) #85 of 136 (-1.7)
Season rating (SOS-adjusted) -4.26 -5.90
Regressed preseason rating -2.77 -3.83
Blended rating (used by model) -3.69 -12.26
In-season blend weight 85.0% 85.0%
WYO (home)NIU (away)
Record 4-3 0-6
Win % 57.1% 0.0%
Points for / game 18.3 14.2
Points against / game 20.9 35.7
Avg scoring margin -2.6 -21.5
Strength of schedule -5.706 +3.723
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) #106 of 138 (-5.8) #135 of 138 (-14.8)
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) #71 of 138 (-0.1) #122 of 138 (-8.1)
Team rating (SOS-adjusted) -3.85 -13.74
#11 · 64 pts Win % (no spread)

NEV @ NDSU

Nevada Wolf Pack at North Dakota State Bison
Pick North Dakota State Bison
Win % (no spread)
82.9% (NDSU)
Market spread
No line
Books
—
No sportsbook spread available for this game; fell back to straight-up win probability.
Basic reasoning ▾

We're picking North Dakota State Bison.

Our model gives NDSU a predicted 82.9% chance to win outright against NEV. No sportsbook spread was available for this game, so the pick is based on who's more likely to win outright.

NDSU also grades out as the better team this season, which backs up the pick.

This pick is worth 64 confidence points this week — the more points assigned, the more confident the model is.

Reasoning & ESPN stats ▾

Reasoning

  1. Regressed preseason ratings from the 2025 season, pulled toward league-average (regression retains 65% of the raw historical rating): NDSU +0.00 vs NEV -4.35.
  2. Blended with this season's to-date rating (85.0% weight for NDSU, 85.0% for NEV, based on games played so far) → model rating of NDSU +5.61 vs NEV -2.93.
  3. Add home-field edge (~+2.50 pts) → predicted margin of +11.0 pts for NDSU.
  4. Predicted margin converts to a straight-up win probability of 82.9% NDSU / 17.1% NEV (source: ESPN model).
  5. No sportsbook spread was available for this game, so ATS probability could not be computed.
  6. Decision basis: straight-up fallback — requested ATS mode but no spread was available for this game.
Projected score: NEV 18.5 – NDSU 29.5

ESPN team stats

NDSU (home)NEV (away)
Record 12-1 3-9
Win % 92.3% 25.0%
Points for / game 41.1 17.6
Points against / game 13.0 27.5
Avg scoring margin +28.1 -9.9
Strength of schedule +0.000 +0.482
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) — #122 of 136 (-9.4)
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) — #84 of 136 (-1.7)
Season rating (SOS-adjusted) +0.00 -6.70
Regressed preseason rating +0.00 -4.35
Blended rating (used by model) +5.61 -2.93
In-season blend weight 85.0% 85.0%
NDSU (home)NEV (away)
Record 6-1 2-4
Win % 85.7% 33.3%
Points for / game 29.4 26.0
Points against / game 11.3 23.5
Avg scoring margin +18.1 +2.5
Strength of schedule -2.754 -3.166
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) #46 of 138 (+3.5) #33 of 138 (+6.7)
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) #4 of 138 (+10.8) #99 of 138 (-2.9)
Team rating (SOS-adjusted) +6.60 -2.67
#12 · 63 pts Win % (no spread)

CLT @ TEM

Charlotte 49ers at Temple Owls
Pick Temple Owls
Win % (no spread)
82.1% (TEM)
Market spread
No line
Books
—
No sportsbook spread available for this game; fell back to straight-up win probability.
Basic reasoning ▾

We're picking Temple Owls.

Our model gives TEM a predicted 82.1% chance to win outright against CLT. No sportsbook spread was available for this game, so the pick is based on who's more likely to win outright.

TEM also grades out as the better team this season, which backs up the pick.

This pick is worth 63 confidence points this week — the more points assigned, the more confident the model is.

Reasoning & ESPN stats ▾

Reasoning

  1. Regressed preseason ratings from the 2025 season, pulled toward league-average (regression retains 65% of the raw historical rating): TEM -1.56 vs CLT -8.09.
  2. Blended with this season's to-date rating (85.0% weight for TEM, 85.0% for CLT, based on games played so far) → model rating of TEM -4.08 vs CLT -12.24.
  3. Add home-field edge (~+2.50 pts) → predicted margin of +10.7 pts for TEM.
  4. Predicted margin converts to a straight-up win probability of 82.1% TEM / 17.9% CLT (source: ESPN model).
  5. No sportsbook spread was available for this game, so ATS probability could not be computed.
  6. Decision basis: straight-up fallback — requested ATS mode but no spread was available for this game.
Projected score: CLT 18.7 – TEM 29.3

ESPN team stats

TEM (home)CLT (away)
Record 5-7 1-11
Win % 41.7% 8.3%
Points for / game 27.8 14.3
Points against / game 29.7 36.3
Avg scoring margin -1.8 -22.0
Strength of schedule -0.331 +1.641
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) #74 of 136 (-0.8) #134 of 136 (-15.4)
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) #110 of 136 (-5.2) #125 of 136 (-7.0)
Season rating (SOS-adjusted) -2.40 -12.44
Regressed preseason rating -1.56 -8.09
Blended rating (used by model) -4.08 -12.24
In-season blend weight 85.0% 85.0%
TEM (home)CLT (away)
Record 2-5 1-6
Win % 28.6% 14.3%
Points for / game 25.7 19.1
Points against / game 28.0 40.6
Avg scoring margin -2.3 -21.4
Strength of schedule +0.358 +2.494
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) #79 of 138 (-1.6) #126 of 138 (-10.0)
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) #96 of 138 (-2.5) #123 of 138 (-8.2)
Team rating (SOS-adjusted) -4.53 -12.97
#14 · 61 pts Win % (no spread)

MSST @ LSU

Mississippi State Bulldogs at LSU Tigers
Pick LSU Tigers
Win % (no spread)
81.0% (LSU)
Market spread
No line
Books
—
No sportsbook spread available for this game; fell back to straight-up win probability.
Basic reasoning ▾

We're picking LSU Tigers.

Our model gives LSU a predicted 81.0% chance to win outright against MSST. No sportsbook spread was available for this game, so the pick is based on who's more likely to win outright.

LSU also grades out as the better team this season, which backs up the pick.

This pick is worth 61 confidence points this week — the more points assigned, the more confident the model is.

Reasoning & ESPN stats ▾

Reasoning

  1. Regressed preseason ratings from the 2025 season, pulled toward league-average (regression retains 65% of the raw historical rating): LSU +0.59 vs MSST -0.50.
  2. Blended with this season's to-date rating (85.0% weight for LSU, 85.0% for MSST, based on games played so far) → model rating of LSU +7.86 vs MSST +0.22.
  3. Add home-field edge (~+2.50 pts) → predicted margin of +10.1 pts for LSU.
  4. Predicted margin converts to a straight-up win probability of 81.0% LSU / 19.0% MSST (source: ESPN model).
  5. No sportsbook spread was available for this game, so ATS probability could not be computed.
  6. Decision basis: straight-up fallback — requested ATS mode but no spread was available for this game.
Projected score: MSST 18.9 – LSU 29.1

ESPN team stats

LSU (home)MSST (away)
Record 7-5 5-7
Win % 58.3% 41.7%
Points for / game 21.8 30.5
Points against / game 18.3 29.2
Avg scoring margin +3.5 +1.3
Strength of schedule +3.375 +2.589
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) #124 of 136 (-9.8) #69 of 136 (-0.2)
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) #13 of 136 (+8.2) #95 of 136 (-3.5)
Season rating (SOS-adjusted) +0.91 -0.77
Regressed preseason rating +0.59 -0.50
Blended rating (used by model) +7.86 +0.22
In-season blend weight 85.0% 85.0%
LSU (home)MSST (away)
Record 5-2 4-2
Win % 71.4% 66.7%
Points for / game 40.4 32.5
Points against / game 15.9 28.5
Avg scoring margin +24.6 +4.0
Strength of schedule +2.120 +1.619
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) #22 of 138 (+8.4) #40 of 138 (+4.5)
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) #5 of 138 (+10.5) #58 of 138 (+1.2)
Team rating (SOS-adjusted) +9.14 +0.34
#15 · 60 pts Win % (no spread)

AKR @ M-OH

Akron Zips at Miami (OH) RedHawks
Pick Miami (OH) RedHawks
Win % (no spread)
80.9% (M-OH)
Market spread
No line
Books
—
No sportsbook spread available for this game; fell back to straight-up win probability.
Basic reasoning ▾

We're picking Miami (OH) RedHawks.

Our model gives M-OH a predicted 80.9% chance to win outright against AKR. No sportsbook spread was available for this game, so the pick is based on who's more likely to win outright.

M-OH also grades out as the better team this season, which backs up the pick.

This pick is worth 60 confidence points this week — the more points assigned, the more confident the model is.

Reasoning & ESPN stats ▾

Reasoning

  1. Regressed preseason ratings from the 2025 season, pulled toward league-average (regression retains 65% of the raw historical rating): M-OH +0.06 vs AKR -2.73.
  2. Blended with this season's to-date rating (85.0% weight for M-OH, 85.0% for AKR, based on games played so far) → model rating of M-OH -1.42 vs AKR -9.04.
  3. Add home-field edge (~+2.50 pts) → predicted margin of +10.1 pts for M-OH.
  4. Predicted margin converts to a straight-up win probability of 80.9% M-OH / 19.1% AKR (source: ESPN model).
  5. No sportsbook spread was available for this game, so ATS probability could not be computed.
  6. Decision basis: straight-up fallback — requested ATS mode but no spread was available for this game.
Projected score: AKR 18.9 – M-OH 29.1

ESPN team stats

M-OH (home)AKR (away)
Record 7-6 5-7
Win % 53.8% 41.7%
Points for / game 25.1 22.2
Points against / game 22.0 27.4
Avg scoring margin +3.1 -5.2
Strength of schedule -1.405 -3.724
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) #83 of 136 (-1.5) #101 of 136 (-3.9)
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) #62 of 136 (+0.3) #122 of 136 (-6.8)
Season rating (SOS-adjusted) +0.09 -4.20
Regressed preseason rating +0.06 -2.73
Blended rating (used by model) -1.42 -9.04
In-season blend weight 85.0% 85.0%
M-OH (home)AKR (away)
Record 4-3 1-6
Win % 57.1% 14.3%
Points for / game 26.9 18.9
Points against / game 25.6 32.4
Avg scoring margin +1.3 -13.6
Strength of schedule -1.394 -1.153
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) #61 of 138 (+1.5) #127 of 138 (-11.2)
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) #88 of 138 (-1.9) #130 of 138 (-9.9)
Team rating (SOS-adjusted) -1.69 -10.15
#16 · 59 pts Win % (no spread)

OHIO @ SAC

Ohio Bobcats at Sacramento State Hornets
Pick Ohio Bobcats
Win % (no spread)
78.8% (OHIO)
Market spread
No line
Books
—
No sportsbook spread available for this game; fell back to straight-up win probability.
Basic reasoning ▾

We're picking Ohio Bobcats.

Our model gives OHIO a predicted 78.8% chance to win outright against SAC. No sportsbook spread was available for this game, so the pick is based on who's more likely to win outright.

OHIO also grades out as the better team this season, which backs up the pick.

This pick is worth 59 confidence points this week — the more points assigned, the more confident the model is.

Reasoning & ESPN stats ▾

Reasoning

  1. Regressed preseason ratings from the 2025 season, pulled toward league-average (regression retains 65% of the raw historical rating): SAC +0.00 vs OHIO +1.13.
  2. Blended with this season's to-date rating (85.0% weight for SAC, 85.0% for OHIO, based on games played so far) → model rating of SAC -10.05 vs OHIO +1.63.
  3. Add home-field edge (~+2.50 pts) → predicted margin of -9.2 pts for SAC.
  4. Predicted margin converts to a straight-up win probability of 21.2% SAC / 78.8% OHIO (source: ESPN model).
  5. No sportsbook spread was available for this game, so ATS probability could not be computed.
  6. Decision basis: straight-up fallback — requested ATS mode but no spread was available for this game.
Projected score: OHIO 28.6 – SAC 19.4

ESPN team stats

SAC (home)OHIO (away)
Record 7-5 8-4
Win % 58.3% 66.7%
Points for / game 33.8 28.7
Points against / game 26.2 22.9
Avg scoring margin +7.5 +5.8
Strength of schedule +0.000 -3.341
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) — #47 of 136 (+2.5)
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) — #59 of 136 (+0.4)
Season rating (SOS-adjusted) +0.00 +1.74
Regressed preseason rating +0.00 +1.13
Blended rating (used by model) -10.05 +1.63
In-season blend weight 85.0% 85.0%
SAC (home)OHIO (away)
Record 1-6 5-2
Win % 14.3% 71.4%
Points for / game 15.0 30.4
Points against / game 32.7 22.1
Avg scoring margin -17.7 +8.3
Strength of schedule -0.297 -4.158
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) #136 of 138 (-15.9) #30 of 138 (+7.1)
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) #131 of 138 (-10.5) #92 of 138 (-2.3)
Team rating (SOS-adjusted) -11.82 +1.72
#17 · 58 pts Win % (no spread)

CSU @ TXST

Colorado State Rams at Texas State Bobcats
Pick Texas State Bobcats
Win % (no spread)
78.7% (TXST)
Market spread
No line
Books
—
No sportsbook spread available for this game; fell back to straight-up win probability.
Basic reasoning ▾

We're picking Texas State Bobcats.

Our model gives TXST a predicted 78.7% chance to win outright against CSU. No sportsbook spread was available for this game, so the pick is based on who's more likely to win outright.

TXST also grades out as the better team this season, which backs up the pick.

This pick is worth 58 confidence points this week — the more points assigned, the more confident the model is.

Reasoning & ESPN stats ▾

Reasoning

  1. Regressed preseason ratings from the 2025 season, pulled toward league-average (regression retains 65% of the raw historical rating): TXST +0.71 vs CSU -5.19.
  2. Blended with this season's to-date rating (85.0% weight for TXST, 85.0% for CSU, based on games played so far) → model rating of TXST +0.87 vs CSU -5.79.
  3. Add home-field edge (~+2.50 pts) → predicted margin of +9.2 pts for TXST.
  4. Predicted margin converts to a straight-up win probability of 78.7% TXST / 21.3% CSU (source: ESPN model).
  5. No sportsbook spread was available for this game, so ATS probability could not be computed.
  6. Decision basis: straight-up fallback — requested ATS mode but no spread was available for this game.
Projected score: CSU 19.4 – TXST 28.6

ESPN team stats

TXST (home)CSU (away)
Record 6-6 2-10
Win % 50.0% 16.7%
Points for / game 36.1 18.5
Points against / game 30.6 30.8
Avg scoring margin +5.5 -12.3
Strength of schedule -1.270 +1.751
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) #11 of 136 (+10.5) #123 of 136 (-9.6)
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) #115 of 136 (-5.5) #106 of 136 (-4.6)
Season rating (SOS-adjusted) +1.10 -7.98
Regressed preseason rating +0.71 -5.19
Blended rating (used by model) +0.87 -5.79
In-season blend weight 85.0% 85.0%
TXST (home)CSU (away)
Record 3-3 2-4
Win % 50.0% 33.3%
Points for / game 40.0 35.7
Points against / game 32.2 43.2
Avg scoring margin +7.8 -7.5
Strength of schedule -0.870 +3.151
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) #13 of 138 (+10.9) #39 of 138 (+4.7)
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) #119 of 138 (-7.2) #138 of 138 (-15.2)
Team rating (SOS-adjusted) +0.90 -5.90
#18 · 57 pts Win % (no spread)

GT @ VT

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Virginia Tech Hokies
Pick Virginia Tech Hokies
Win % (no spread)
78.1% (VT)
Market spread
No line
Books
—
No sportsbook spread available for this game; fell back to straight-up win probability.
Basic reasoning ▾

We're picking Virginia Tech Hokies.

Our model gives VT a predicted 78.1% chance to win outright against GT. No sportsbook spread was available for this game, so the pick is based on who's more likely to win outright.

VT also grades out as the better team this season, which backs up the pick.

This pick is worth 57 confidence points this week — the more points assigned, the more confident the model is.

Reasoning & ESPN stats ▾

Reasoning

  1. Regressed preseason ratings from the 2025 season, pulled toward league-average (regression retains 65% of the raw historical rating): VT -3.79 vs GT +2.23.
  2. Blended with this season's to-date rating (85.0% weight for VT, 85.0% for GT, based on games played so far) → model rating of VT +3.71 vs GT -2.67.
  3. Add home-field edge (~+2.50 pts) → predicted margin of +8.9 pts for VT.
  4. Predicted margin converts to a straight-up win probability of 78.1% VT / 21.9% GT (source: ESPN model).
  5. No sportsbook spread was available for this game, so ATS probability could not be computed.
  6. Decision basis: straight-up fallback — requested ATS mode but no spread was available for this game.
Projected score: GT 19.6 – VT 28.4

ESPN team stats

VT (home)GT (away)
Record 3-9 9-3
Win % 25.0% 75.0%
Points for / game 21.4 33.1
Points against / game 30.2 25.0
Avg scoring margin -8.8 +8.1
Strength of schedule +3.642 -1.202
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) #121 of 136 (-8.6) #24 of 136 (+5.8)
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) #97 of 136 (-3.8) #79 of 136 (-1.3)
Season rating (SOS-adjusted) -5.83 +3.44
Regressed preseason rating -3.79 +2.23
Blended rating (used by model) +3.71 -2.67
In-season blend weight 85.0% 85.0%
VT (home)GT (away)
Record 5-2 2-4
Win % 71.4% 33.3%
Points for / game 37.1 26.7
Points against / game 21.1 27.2
Avg scoring margin +16.0 -0.5
Strength of schedule -3.578 +0.234
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) #31 of 138 (+6.8) #90 of 138 (-3.2)
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) #95 of 138 (-2.5) #120 of 138 (-7.9)
Team rating (SOS-adjusted) +5.03 -3.54
#19 · 56 pts Win % (no spread)

TROY @ UL

Troy Trojans at Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns
Pick Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns
Win % (no spread)
74.6% (UL)
Market spread
No line
Books
—
No sportsbook spread available for this game; fell back to straight-up win probability.
Basic reasoning ▾

We're picking Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns.

Our model gives UL a predicted 74.6% chance to win outright against TROY. No sportsbook spread was available for this game, so the pick is based on who's more likely to win outright.

UL also grades out as the better team this season, which backs up the pick.

This pick is worth 56 confidence points this week — the more points assigned, the more confident the model is.

Reasoning & ESPN stats ▾

Reasoning

  1. Regressed preseason ratings from the 2025 season, pulled toward league-average (regression retains 65% of the raw historical rating): UL -1.62 vs TROY -0.47.
  2. Blended with this season's to-date rating (85.0% weight for UL, 85.0% for TROY, based on games played so far) → model rating of UL +2.16 vs TROY -2.88.
  3. Add home-field edge (~+2.50 pts) → predicted margin of +7.5 pts for UL.
  4. Predicted margin converts to a straight-up win probability of 74.6% UL / 25.4% TROY (source: ESPN model).
  5. No sportsbook spread was available for this game, so ATS probability could not be computed.
  6. Decision basis: straight-up fallback — requested ATS mode but no spread was available for this game.
Projected score: TROY 20.2 – UL 27.8

ESPN team stats

UL (home)TROY (away)
Record 6-6 8-5
Win % 50.0% 61.5%
Points for / game 27.1 24.3
Points against / game 30.0 24.5
Avg scoring margin -2.9 -0.1
Strength of schedule -1.191 -0.476
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) #60 of 136 (+1.1) #94 of 136 (-2.5)
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) #99 of 136 (-4.0) #36 of 136 (+3.6)
Season rating (SOS-adjusted) -2.49 -0.73
Regressed preseason rating -1.62 -0.47
Blended rating (used by model) +2.16 -2.88
In-season blend weight 85.0% 85.0%
UL (home)TROY (away)
Record 5-2 3-3
Win % 71.4% 50.0%
Points for / game 30.0 24.3
Points against / game 19.3 25.5
Avg scoring margin +10.7 -1.2
Strength of schedule -2.767 -3.300
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) #37 of 138 (+5.5) #94 of 138 (-3.9)
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) #43 of 138 (+3.1) #115 of 138 (-6.3)
Team rating (SOS-adjusted) +2.83 -3.31
#20 · 55 pts Win % (no spread)

WAKE @ CAL

Wake Forest Demon Deacons at California Golden Bears
Pick Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Win % (no spread)
73.5% (WAKE)
Market spread
No line
Books
—
No sportsbook spread available for this game; fell back to straight-up win probability.
Basic reasoning ▾

We're picking Wake Forest Demon Deacons.

Our model gives WAKE a predicted 73.5% chance to win outright against CAL. No sportsbook spread was available for this game, so the pick is based on who's more likely to win outright.

WAKE also grades out as the better team this season, which backs up the pick.

This pick is worth 55 confidence points this week — the more points assigned, the more confident the model is.

Reasoning & ESPN stats ▾

Reasoning

  1. Regressed preseason ratings from the 2025 season, pulled toward league-average (regression retains 65% of the raw historical rating): CAL -1.02 vs WAKE +1.21.
  2. Blended with this season's to-date rating (85.0% weight for CAL, 85.0% for WAKE, based on games played so far) → model rating of CAL -3.68 vs WAKE +5.97.
  3. Add home-field edge (~+2.50 pts) → predicted margin of -7.2 pts for CAL.
  4. Predicted margin converts to a straight-up win probability of 26.5% CAL / 73.5% WAKE (source: ESPN model).
  5. No sportsbook spread was available for this game, so ATS probability could not be computed.
  6. Decision basis: straight-up fallback — requested ATS mode but no spread was available for this game.
Projected score: WAKE 27.6 – CAL 20.4

ESPN team stats

CAL (home)WAKE (away)
Record 7-5 8-4
Win % 58.3% 66.7%
Points for / game 24.8 26.8
Points against / game 26.5 21.5
Avg scoring margin -1.7 +5.3
Strength of schedule -1.158 -0.060
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) #87 of 136 (-2.0) #67 of 136 (+0.4)
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) #114 of 136 (-5.4) #31 of 136 (+3.9)
Season rating (SOS-adjusted) -1.57 +1.86
Regressed preseason rating -1.02 +1.21
Blended rating (used by model) -3.68 +5.97
In-season blend weight 85.0% 85.0%
CAL (home)WAKE (away)
Record 3-4 6-1
Win % 42.9% 85.7%
Points for / game 23.9 37.4
Points against / game 27.7 19.4
Avg scoring margin -3.9 +18.0
Strength of schedule +3.062 -1.722
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) #117 of 138 (-7.9) #3 of 138 (+14.3)
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) #93 of 138 (-2.3) #26 of 138 (+5.9)
Team rating (SOS-adjusted) -4.15 +6.81
#21 · 54 pts Win % (no spread)

NU @ MSU

Northwestern Wildcats at Michigan State Spartans
Pick Northwestern Wildcats
Win % (no spread)
73.4% (NU)
Market spread
No line
Books
—
No sportsbook spread available for this game; fell back to straight-up win probability.
Basic reasoning ▾

We're picking Northwestern Wildcats.

Our model gives NU a predicted 73.4% chance to win outright against MSU. No sportsbook spread was available for this game, so the pick is based on who's more likely to win outright.

NU also grades out as the better team this season, which backs up the pick.

This pick is worth 54 confidence points this week — the more points assigned, the more confident the model is.

Reasoning & ESPN stats ▾

Reasoning

  1. Regressed preseason ratings from the 2025 season, pulled toward league-average (regression retains 65% of the raw historical rating): MSU -2.68 vs NU -0.39.
  2. Blended with this season's to-date rating (85.0% weight for MSU, 85.0% for NU, based on games played so far) → model rating of MSU -4.64 vs NU +4.96.
  3. Add home-field edge (~+2.50 pts) → predicted margin of -7.1 pts for MSU.
  4. Predicted margin converts to a straight-up win probability of 26.6% MSU / 73.4% NU (source: ESPN model).
  5. No sportsbook spread was available for this game, so ATS probability could not be computed.
  6. Decision basis: straight-up fallback — requested ATS mode but no spread was available for this game.
Projected score: NU 27.5 – MSU 20.5

ESPN team stats

MSU (home)NU (away)
Record 4-8 6-6
Win % 33.3% 50.0%
Points for / game 24.6 22.5
Points against / game 29.9 20.9
Avg scoring margin -5.3 +1.6
Strength of schedule +1.756 +0.399
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) #104 of 136 (-4.8) #107 of 136 (-5.8)
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) #104 of 136 (-4.4) #45 of 136 (+2.8)
Season rating (SOS-adjusted) -4.12 -0.60
Regressed preseason rating -2.68 -0.39
Blended rating (used by model) -4.64 +4.96
In-season blend weight 85.0% 85.0%
MSU (home)NU (away)
Record 2-5 5-1
Win % 28.6% 83.3%
Points for / game 21.3 33.5
Points against / game 25.4 17.0
Avg scoring margin -4.1 +16.5
Strength of schedule +4.128 -2.623
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) #112 of 138 (-6.6) #42 of 138 (+4.2)
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) #34 of 138 (+4.6) #29 of 138 (+5.1)
Team rating (SOS-adjusted) -4.99 +5.90
#23 · 52 pts Win % (no spread)

FAU @ ARMY

Florida Atlantic Owls at Army Black Knights
Pick Army Black Knights
Win % (no spread)
72.7% (ARMY)
Market spread
No line
Books
—
No sportsbook spread available for this game; fell back to straight-up win probability.
Basic reasoning ▾

We're picking Army Black Knights.

Our model gives ARMY a predicted 72.7% chance to win outright against FAU. No sportsbook spread was available for this game, so the pick is based on who's more likely to win outright.

ARMY also grades out as the better team this season, which backs up the pick.

This pick is worth 52 confidence points this week — the more points assigned, the more confident the model is.

Reasoning & ESPN stats ▾

Reasoning

  1. Regressed preseason ratings from the 2025 season, pulled toward league-average (regression retains 65% of the raw historical rating): ARMY -0.79 vs FAU -3.07.
  2. Blended with this season's to-date rating (85.0% weight for ARMY, 85.0% for FAU, based on games played so far) → model rating of ARMY +3.76 vs FAU -0.60.
  3. Add home-field edge (~+2.50 pts) → predicted margin of +6.9 pts for ARMY.
  4. Predicted margin converts to a straight-up win probability of 72.7% ARMY / 27.3% FAU (source: ESPN model).
  5. No sportsbook spread was available for this game, so ATS probability could not be computed.
  6. Decision basis: straight-up fallback — requested ATS mode but no spread was available for this game.
Projected score: FAU 20.6 – ARMY 27.4

ESPN team stats

ARMY (home)FAU (away)
Record 6-6 4-8
Win % 50.0% 33.3%
Points for / game 22.4 29.5
Points against / game 22.1 36.3
Avg scoring margin +0.3 -6.8
Strength of schedule -0.759 +0.787
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) #95 of 136 (-2.7) #62 of 136 (+1.0)
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) #16 of 136 (+6.6) #131 of 136 (-8.5)
Season rating (SOS-adjusted) -1.22 -4.72
Regressed preseason rating -0.79 -3.07
Blended rating (used by model) +3.76 -0.60
In-season blend weight 85.0% 85.0%
ARMY (home)FAU (away)
Record 4-2 4-2
Win % 66.7% 66.7%
Points for / game 34.8 35.0
Points against / game 20.0 31.5
Avg scoring margin +14.8 +3.5
Strength of schedule -0.469 -1.929
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) #48 of 138 (+3.2) #43 of 138 (+4.1)
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) #56 of 138 (+1.6) #127 of 138 (-9.4)
Team rating (SOS-adjusted) +4.57 -0.16
#24 · 51 pts Win % (no spread)

UNLV @ AFA

UNLV Rebels at Air Force Falcons
Pick Air Force Falcons
Win % (no spread)
72.5% (AFA)
Market spread
No line
Books
—
No sportsbook spread available for this game; fell back to straight-up win probability.
Basic reasoning ▾

We're picking Air Force Falcons.

Our model gives AFA a predicted 72.5% chance to win outright against UNLV. No sportsbook spread was available for this game, so the pick is based on who's more likely to win outright.

AFA also grades out as the better team this season, which backs up the pick.

This pick is worth 51 confidence points this week — the more points assigned, the more confident the model is.

Reasoning & ESPN stats ▾

Reasoning

  1. Regressed preseason ratings from the 2025 season, pulled toward league-average (regression retains 65% of the raw historical rating): AFA -1.46 vs UNLV +1.97.
  2. Blended with this season's to-date rating (85.0% weight for AFA, 85.0% for UNLV, based on games played so far) → model rating of AFA +2.87 vs UNLV -1.41.
  3. Add home-field edge (~+2.50 pts) → predicted margin of +6.8 pts for AFA.
  4. Predicted margin converts to a straight-up win probability of 72.5% AFA / 27.5% UNLV (source: ESPN model).
  5. No sportsbook spread was available for this game, so ATS probability could not be computed.
  6. Decision basis: straight-up fallback — requested ATS mode but no spread was available for this game.
Projected score: UNLV 20.6 – AFA 27.4

ESPN team stats

AFA (home)UNLV (away)
Record 4-8 10-3
Win % 33.3% 76.9%
Points for / game 29.8 35.9
Points against / game 30.3 28.9
Avg scoring margin -0.5 +7.1
Strength of schedule -0.176 -2.780
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) #55 of 136 (+1.9) #12 of 136 (+10.4)
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) #101 of 136 (-4.3) #103 of 136 (-4.4)
Season rating (SOS-adjusted) -2.25 +3.03
Regressed preseason rating -1.46 +1.97
Blended rating (used by model) +2.87 -1.41
In-season blend weight 85.0% 85.0%
AFA (home)UNLV (away)
Record 5-1 4-3
Win % 83.3% 57.1%
Points for / game 30.8 24.1
Points against / game 19.7 23.7
Avg scoring margin +11.2 +0.4
Strength of schedule -3.097 -0.608
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) #45 of 138 (+3.6) #75 of 138 (-1.2)
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) #54 of 138 (+2.1) #51 of 138 (+2.5)
Team rating (SOS-adjusted) +3.64 -2.01
#25 · 50 pts Win % (no spread)

ELON @ STAN

Elon Phoenix at Stanford Cardinal
Pick Elon Phoenix
Win % (no spread)
71.8% (ELON)
Market spread
No line
Books
—
No sportsbook spread available for this game; fell back to straight-up win probability.
Basic reasoning ▾

We're picking Elon Phoenix.

Our model gives ELON a predicted 71.8% chance to win outright against STAN. No sportsbook spread was available for this game, so the pick is based on who's more likely to win outright.

ELON also grades out as the better team this season, which backs up the pick.

This pick is worth 50 confidence points this week — the more points assigned, the more confident the model is.

Reasoning & ESPN stats ▾

Reasoning

  1. Regressed preseason ratings from the 2025 season, pulled toward league-average (regression retains 65% of the raw historical rating): STAN -4.03 vs ELON +0.00.
  2. Blended with this season's to-date rating (85.0% weight for STAN, 20.0% for ELON, based on games played so far) → model rating of STAN -9.06 vs ELON +0.00.
  3. Add home-field edge (~+2.50 pts) → predicted margin of -6.6 pts for STAN.
  4. Predicted margin converts to a straight-up win probability of 28.2% STAN / 71.8% ELON (source: ESPN model).
  5. No sportsbook spread was available for this game, so ATS probability could not be computed.
  6. Decision basis: straight-up fallback — requested ATS mode but no spread was available for this game.
Projected score: ELON 27.3 – STAN 20.7

ESPN team stats

STAN (home)ELON (away)
Record 4-8 0-1
Win % 33.3% 0.0%
Points for / game 18.8 17.0
Points against / game 29.2 45.0
Avg scoring margin -10.3 -28.0
Strength of schedule +2.357 +0.000
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) #119 of 136 (-8.2) —
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) #75 of 136 (-1.0) —
Season rating (SOS-adjusted) -6.21 +0.00
Regressed preseason rating -4.03 +0.00
Blended rating (used by model) -9.06 +0.00
In-season blend weight 85.0% 20.0%
STAN (home)ELON (away)
Record 3-4 0-1
Win % 42.9% 0.0%
Points for / game 18.3 7.0
Points against / game 36.6 34.0
Avg scoring margin -18.3 -27.0
Strength of schedule +4.737 +0.000
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) #131 of 138 (-12.2) —
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) #129 of 138 (-9.5) —
Team rating (SOS-adjusted) -9.94 +0.00
#26 · 49 pts Win % (no spread)

KU @ KSU

Kansas Jayhawks at Kansas State Wildcats
Pick Kansas State Wildcats
Win % (no spread)
71.7% (KSU)
Market spread
No line
Books
—
No sportsbook spread available for this game; fell back to straight-up win probability.
Basic reasoning ▾

We're picking Kansas State Wildcats.

Our model gives KSU a predicted 71.7% chance to win outright against KU. No sportsbook spread was available for this game, so the pick is based on who's more likely to win outright.

KSU also grades out as the better team this season, which backs up the pick.

This pick is worth 49 confidence points this week — the more points assigned, the more confident the model is.

Reasoning & ESPN stats ▾

Reasoning

  1. Regressed preseason ratings from the 2025 season, pulled toward league-average (regression retains 65% of the raw historical rating): KSU +0.06 vs KU -0.55.
  2. Blended with this season's to-date rating (85.0% weight for KSU, 85.0% for KU, based on games played so far) → model rating of KSU +4.15 vs KU +0.13.
  3. Add home-field edge (~+2.50 pts) → predicted margin of +6.5 pts for KSU.
  4. Predicted margin converts to a straight-up win probability of 71.7% KSU / 28.3% KU (source: ESPN model).
  5. No sportsbook spread was available for this game, so ATS probability could not be computed.
  6. Decision basis: straight-up fallback — requested ATS mode but no spread was available for this game.
Projected score: KU 20.7 – KSU 27.3

ESPN team stats

KSU (home)KU (away)
Record 6-6 5-7
Win % 50.0% 41.7%
Points for / game 29.4 28.1
Points against / game 26.7 26.8
Avg scoring margin +2.8 +1.3
Strength of schedule +1.108 +2.360
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) #57 of 136 (+1.6) #80 of 136 (-1.3)
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) #54 of 136 (+0.8) #83 of 136 (-1.6)
Season rating (SOS-adjusted) +0.09 -0.84
Regressed preseason rating +0.06 -0.55
Blended rating (used by model) +4.15 +0.13
In-season blend weight 85.0% 85.0%
KSU (home)KU (away)
Record 4-2 2-4
Win % 66.7% 33.3%
Points for / game 35.5 32.0
Points against / game 20.0 24.0
Avg scoring margin +15.5 +8.0
Strength of schedule -0.288 +2.612
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) #69 of 138 (+0.4) #51 of 138 (+2.4)
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) #48 of 138 (+2.5) #81 of 138 (-1.3)
Team rating (SOS-adjusted) +4.87 +0.25
#27 · 48 pts Win % (no spread)

OKST @ HOU

Oklahoma State Cowboys at Houston Cougars
Pick Houston Cougars
Win % (no spread)
71.7% (HOU)
Market spread
No line
Books
—
No sportsbook spread available for this game; fell back to straight-up win probability.
Basic reasoning ▾

We're picking Houston Cougars.

Our model gives HOU a predicted 71.7% chance to win outright against OKST. No sportsbook spread was available for this game, so the pick is based on who's more likely to win outright.

HOU also grades out as the better team this season, which backs up the pick.

This pick is worth 48 confidence points this week — the more points assigned, the more confident the model is.

Reasoning & ESPN stats ▾

Reasoning

  1. Regressed preseason ratings from the 2025 season, pulled toward league-average (regression retains 65% of the raw historical rating): HOU +1.71 vs OKST -7.25.
  2. Blended with this season's to-date rating (85.0% weight for HOU, 85.0% for OKST, based on games played so far) → model rating of HOU +6.70 vs OKST +2.69.
  3. Add home-field edge (~+2.50 pts) → predicted margin of +6.5 pts for HOU.
  4. Predicted margin converts to a straight-up win probability of 71.7% HOU / 28.3% OKST (source: ESPN model).
  5. No sportsbook spread was available for this game, so ATS probability could not be computed.
  6. Decision basis: straight-up fallback — requested ATS mode but no spread was available for this game.
Projected score: OKST 20.7 – HOU 27.3

ESPN team stats

HOU (home)OKST (away)
Record 9-3 1-11
Win % 75.0% 8.3%
Points for / game 28.3 14.2
Points against / game 21.8 33.3
Avg scoring margin +6.5 -19.2
Strength of schedule -1.970 +2.959
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) #44 of 136 (+3.2) #133 of 136 (-14.2)
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) #66 of 136 (-0.3) #126 of 136 (-7.2)
Season rating (SOS-adjusted) +2.62 -11.16
Regressed preseason rating +1.71 -7.25
Blended rating (used by model) +6.70 +2.69
In-season blend weight 85.0% 85.0%
HOU (home)OKST (away)
Record 6-1 4-2
Win % 85.7% 66.7%
Points for / game 39.3 37.2
Points against / game 21.0 23.7
Avg scoring margin +18.3 +13.5
Strength of schedule +4.442 +3.183
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) #34 of 138 (+6.1) #35 of 138 (+5.6)
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) #20 of 138 (+7.0) #75 of 138 (-0.4)
Team rating (SOS-adjusted) +7.58 +4.44
#28 · 47 pts Win % (no spread)

UNC @ DUKE

North Carolina Tar Heels at Duke Blue Devils
Pick Duke Blue Devils
Win % (no spread)
71.4% (DUKE)
Market spread
No line
Books
—
No sportsbook spread available for this game; fell back to straight-up win probability.
Basic reasoning ▾

We're picking Duke Blue Devils.

Our model gives DUKE a predicted 71.4% chance to win outright against UNC. No sportsbook spread was available for this game, so the pick is based on who's more likely to win outright.

DUKE also grades out as the better team this season, which backs up the pick.

This pick is worth 47 confidence points this week — the more points assigned, the more confident the model is.

Reasoning & ESPN stats ▾

Reasoning

  1. Regressed preseason ratings from the 2025 season, pulled toward league-average (regression retains 65% of the raw historical rating): DUKE +1.21 vs UNC -2.95.
  2. Blended with this season's to-date rating (85.0% weight for DUKE, 85.0% for UNC, based on games played so far) → model rating of DUKE +4.01 vs UNC +0.09.
  3. Add home-field edge (~+2.50 pts) → predicted margin of +6.4 pts for DUKE.
  4. Predicted margin converts to a straight-up win probability of 71.4% DUKE / 28.6% UNC (source: ESPN model).
  5. No sportsbook spread was available for this game, so ATS probability could not be computed.
  6. Decision basis: straight-up fallback — requested ATS mode but no spread was available for this game.
Projected score: UNC 20.8 – DUKE 27.2

ESPN team stats

DUKE (home)UNC (away)
Record 8-5 4-8
Win % 61.5% 33.3%
Points for / game 34.0 19.2
Points against / game 28.7 24.5
Avg scoring margin +5.3 -5.2
Strength of schedule +1.305 -1.742
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) #18 of 136 (+6.8) #116 of 136 (-7.8)
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) #90 of 136 (-2.6) #89 of 136 (-2.5)
Season rating (SOS-adjusted) +1.86 -4.54
Regressed preseason rating +1.21 -2.95
Blended rating (used by model) +4.01 +0.09
In-season blend weight 85.0% 85.0%
DUKE (home)UNC (away)
Record 4-2 4-2
Win % 66.7% 66.7%
Points for / game 31.7 23.5
Points against / game 16.0 19.2
Avg scoring margin +15.7 +4.3
Strength of schedule -3.919 +4.961
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) #54 of 138 (+2.1) #122 of 138 (-9.3)
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) #44 of 138 (+2.8) #49 of 138 (+2.5)
Team rating (SOS-adjusted) +4.50 +0.63
#29 · 46 pts Win % (no spread)

WIS @ UCLA

Wisconsin Badgers at UCLA Bruins
Pick UCLA Bruins
Win % (no spread)
71.4% (UCLA)
Market spread
No line
Books
—
No sportsbook spread available for this game; fell back to straight-up win probability.
Basic reasoning ▾

We're picking UCLA Bruins.

Our model gives UCLA a predicted 71.4% chance to win outright against WIS. No sportsbook spread was available for this game, so the pick is based on who's more likely to win outright.

UCLA also grades out as the better team this season, which backs up the pick.

This pick is worth 46 confidence points this week — the more points assigned, the more confident the model is.

Reasoning & ESPN stats ▾

Reasoning

  1. Regressed preseason ratings from the 2025 season, pulled toward league-average (regression retains 65% of the raw historical rating): UCLA -5.48 vs WIS -3.55.
  2. Blended with this season's to-date rating (85.0% weight for UCLA, 85.0% for WIS, based on games played so far) → model rating of UCLA +6.00 vs WIS +2.09.
  3. Add home-field edge (~+2.50 pts) → predicted margin of +6.4 pts for UCLA.
  4. Predicted margin converts to a straight-up win probability of 71.4% UCLA / 28.6% WIS (source: ESPN model).
  5. No sportsbook spread was available for this game, so ATS probability could not be computed.
  6. Decision basis: straight-up fallback — requested ATS mode but no spread was available for this game.
Projected score: WIS 20.8 – UCLA 27.2

ESPN team stats

UCLA (home)WIS (away)
Record 3-9 4-8
Win % 25.0% 33.3%
Points for / game 18.2 12.8
Points against / game 33.4 21.6
Avg scoring margin -15.2 -8.8
Strength of schedule +4.681 +4.644
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) #127 of 136 (-10.3) #136 of 136 (-16.9)
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) #96 of 136 (-3.5) #20 of 136 (+6.0)
Season rating (SOS-adjusted) -8.42 -5.45
Regressed preseason rating -5.48 -3.55
Blended rating (used by model) +6.00 +2.09
In-season blend weight 85.0% 85.0%
UCLA (home)WIS (away)
Record 6-0 4-2
Win % 100.0% 66.7%
Points for / game 35.5 27.5
Points against / game 16.2 16.7
Avg scoring margin +19.3 +10.8
Strength of schedule -2.236 +2.374
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) #24 of 138 (+8.1) #91 of 138 (-3.4)
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) #24 of 138 (+6.1) #6 of 138 (+10.4)
Team rating (SOS-adjusted) +8.03 +3.08
#30 · 45 pts Win % (no spread)

SJSU @ UTEP

San José State Spartans at UTEP Miners
Pick San José State Spartans
Win % (no spread)
71.4% (SJSU)
Market spread
No line
Books
—
No sportsbook spread available for this game; fell back to straight-up win probability.
Basic reasoning ▾

We're picking San José State Spartans.

Our model gives SJSU a predicted 71.4% chance to win outright against UTEP. No sportsbook spread was available for this game, so the pick is based on who's more likely to win outright.

SJSU also grades out as the better team this season, which backs up the pick.

This pick is worth 45 confidence points this week — the more points assigned, the more confident the model is.

Reasoning & ESPN stats ▾

Reasoning

  1. Regressed preseason ratings from the 2025 season, pulled toward league-average (regression retains 65% of the raw historical rating): UTEP -4.00 vs SJSU -4.67.
  2. Blended with this season's to-date rating (85.0% weight for UTEP, 85.0% for SJSU, based on games played so far) → model rating of UTEP -11.94 vs SJSU -3.04.
  3. Add home-field edge (~+2.50 pts) → predicted margin of -6.4 pts for UTEP.
  4. Predicted margin converts to a straight-up win probability of 28.6% UTEP / 71.4% SJSU (source: ESPN model).
  5. No sportsbook spread was available for this game, so ATS probability could not be computed.
  6. Decision basis: straight-up fallback — requested ATS mode but no spread was available for this game.
Projected score: SJSU 27.2 – UTEP 20.8

ESPN team stats

UTEP (home)SJSU (away)
Record 2-10 3-9
Win % 16.7% 25.0%
Points for / game 23.3 21.4
Points against / game 30.4 32.5
Avg scoring margin -7.1 -11.1
Strength of schedule -2.283 -0.391
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) #97 of 136 (-2.9) #112 of 136 (-6.7)
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) #113 of 136 (-5.3) #130 of 136 (-8.1)
Season rating (SOS-adjusted) -6.16 -7.18
Regressed preseason rating -4.00 -4.67
Blended rating (used by model) -11.94 -3.04
In-season blend weight 85.0% 85.0%
UTEP (home)SJSU (away)
Record 1-6 4-3
Win % 14.3% 57.1%
Points for / game 15.1 21.4
Points against / game 37.3 21.7
Avg scoring margin -22.1 -0.3
Strength of schedule +2.486 -4.570
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) #138 of 138 (-19.2) #83 of 138 (-2.6)
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) #135 of 138 (-12.3) #65 of 138 (+0.3)
Team rating (SOS-adjusted) -13.34 -2.75
#32 · 43 pts Win % (no spread)

PITT @ BC

Pittsburgh Panthers at Boston College Eagles
Pick Pittsburgh Panthers
Win % (no spread)
70.2% (PITT)
Market spread
No line
Books
—
No sportsbook spread available for this game; fell back to straight-up win probability.
Basic reasoning ▾

We're picking Pittsburgh Panthers.

Our model gives PITT a predicted 70.2% chance to win outright against BC. No sportsbook spread was available for this game, so the pick is based on who's more likely to win outright.

PITT also grades out as the better team this season, which backs up the pick.

This pick is worth 43 confidence points this week — the more points assigned, the more confident the model is.

Reasoning & ESPN stats ▾

Reasoning

  1. Regressed preseason ratings from the 2025 season, pulled toward league-average (regression retains 65% of the raw historical rating): BC -3.80 vs PITT +2.61.
  2. Blended with this season's to-date rating (85.0% weight for BC, 85.0% for PITT, based on games played so far) → model rating of BC -3.43 vs PITT +5.07.
  3. Add home-field edge (~+2.50 pts) → predicted margin of -6.0 pts for BC.
  4. Predicted margin converts to a straight-up win probability of 29.8% BC / 70.2% PITT (source: ESPN model).
  5. No sportsbook spread was available for this game, so ATS probability could not be computed.
  6. Decision basis: straight-up fallback — requested ATS mode but no spread was available for this game.
Projected score: PITT 27.0 – BC 21.0

ESPN team stats

BC (home)PITT (away)
Record 2-10 8-4
Win % 16.7% 66.7%
Points for / game 25.4 35.1
Points against / game 32.8 24.9
Avg scoring margin -7.3 +10.2
Strength of schedule +1.345 +0.240
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) #103 of 136 (-4.3) #22 of 136 (+6.0)
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) #121 of 136 (-6.6) #69 of 136 (-0.6)
Season rating (SOS-adjusted) -5.85 +4.01
Regressed preseason rating -3.80 +2.61
Blended rating (used by model) -3.43 +5.07
In-season blend weight 85.0% 85.0%
BC (home)PITT (away)
Record 3-3 5-2
Win % 50.0% 71.4%
Points for / game 20.3 32.9
Points against / game 23.0 16.4
Avg scoring margin -2.7 +16.4
Strength of schedule +2.974 +0.218
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) #99 of 138 (-4.7) #52 of 138 (+2.3)
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) #37 of 138 (+4.2) #32 of 138 (+4.8)
Team rating (SOS-adjusted) -3.37 +5.50
#33 · 42 pts Win % (no spread)

TLSA @ RICE

Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Rice Owls
Pick Tulsa Golden Hurricane
Win % (no spread)
69.6% (TLSA)
Market spread
No line
Books
—
No sportsbook spread available for this game; fell back to straight-up win probability.
Basic reasoning ▾

We're picking Tulsa Golden Hurricane.

Our model gives TLSA a predicted 69.6% chance to win outright against RICE. No sportsbook spread was available for this game, so the pick is based on who's more likely to win outright.

TLSA also grades out as the better team this season, which backs up the pick.

This pick is worth 42 confidence points this week — the more points assigned, the more confident the model is.

Reasoning & ESPN stats ▾

Reasoning

  1. Regressed preseason ratings from the 2025 season, pulled toward league-average (regression retains 65% of the raw historical rating): RICE -4.38 vs TLSA -3.07.
  2. Blended with this season's to-date rating (85.0% weight for RICE, 85.0% for TLSA, based on games played so far) → model rating of RICE -8.47 vs TLSA -0.16.
  3. Add home-field edge (~+2.50 pts) → predicted margin of -5.8 pts for RICE.
  4. Predicted margin converts to a straight-up win probability of 30.4% RICE / 69.6% TLSA (source: ESPN model).
  5. No sportsbook spread was available for this game, so ATS probability could not be computed.
  6. Decision basis: straight-up fallback — requested ATS mode but no spread was available for this game.
Projected score: TLSA 26.9 – RICE 21.1

ESPN team stats

RICE (home)TLSA (away)
Record 5-7 4-8
Win % 41.7% 33.3%
Points for / game 19.8 23.2
Points against / game 32.2 28.9
Avg scoring margin -12.4 -5.8
Strength of schedule +0.687 -2.311
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) #109 of 136 (-6.2) #98 of 136 (-3.1)
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) #91 of 136 (-2.7) #118 of 136 (-5.6)
Season rating (SOS-adjusted) -6.74 -4.72
Regressed preseason rating -4.38 -3.07
Blended rating (used by model) -8.47 -0.16
In-season blend weight 85.0% 85.0%
RICE (home)TLSA (away)
Record 1-6 4-3
Win % 14.3% 57.1%
Points for / game 17.0 29.0
Points against / game 29.0 22.4
Avg scoring margin -12.0 +6.6
Strength of schedule +2.466 -2.848
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) #129 of 138 (-11.4) #50 of 138 (+2.5)
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) #108 of 138 (-5.0) #94 of 138 (-2.5)
Team rating (SOS-adjusted) -9.20 +0.35
#34 · 41 pts Win % (no spread)

CIT @ TA&M

The Citadel Bulldogs at Texas A&M Aggies
Pick Texas A&M Aggies
Win % (no spread)
69.4% (TA&M)
Market spread
No line
Books
—
No sportsbook spread available for this game; fell back to straight-up win probability.
Basic reasoning ▾

We're picking Texas A&M Aggies.

Our model gives TA&M a predicted 69.4% chance to win outright against CIT. No sportsbook spread was available for this game, so the pick is based on who's more likely to win outright.

TA&M also grades out as the better team this season, which backs up the pick.

This pick is worth 41 confidence points this week — the more points assigned, the more confident the model is.

Reasoning & ESPN stats ▾

Reasoning

  1. Regressed preseason ratings from the 2025 season, pulled toward league-average (regression retains 65% of the raw historical rating): TA&M +4.69 vs CIT +0.00.
  2. Blended with this season's to-date rating (85.0% weight for TA&M, 40.0% for CIT, based on games played so far) → model rating of TA&M +3.22 vs CIT +0.00.
  3. Add home-field edge (~+2.50 pts) → predicted margin of +5.7 pts for TA&M.
  4. Predicted margin converts to a straight-up win probability of 69.4% TA&M / 30.6% CIT (source: ESPN model).
  5. No sportsbook spread was available for this game, so ATS probability could not be computed.
  6. Decision basis: straight-up fallback — requested ATS mode but no spread was available for this game.
Projected score: CIT 21.1 – TA&M 26.9

ESPN team stats

TA&M (home)CIT (away)
Record 11-1 0-2
Win % 91.7% 0.0%
Points for / game 36.3 0.0
Points against / game 21.9 43.5
Avg scoring margin +14.4 -43.5
Strength of schedule +1.316 +0.000
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) #17 of 136 (+6.8) —
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) #46 of 136 (+2.6) —
Season rating (SOS-adjusted) +7.22 +0.00
Regressed preseason rating +4.69 +0.00
Blended rating (used by model) +3.22 +0.00
In-season blend weight 85.0% 40.0%
TA&M (home)CIT (away)
Record 4-3 1-1
Win % 57.1% 50.0%
Points for / game 29.4 21.5
Points against / game 17.1 41.0
Avg scoring margin +12.3 -19.5
Strength of schedule +0.008 +0.000
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) #64 of 138 (+1.1) —
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) #35 of 138 (+4.5) —
Team rating (SOS-adjusted) +2.96 +0.00
#35 · 40 pts Win % (no spread)

NAVY @ UTSA

Navy Midshipmen at UTSA Roadrunners
Pick UTSA Roadrunners
Win % (no spread)
68.8% (UTSA)
Market spread
No line
Books
—
No sportsbook spread available for this game; fell back to straight-up win probability.
Basic reasoning ▾

We're picking UTSA Roadrunners.

Our model gives UTSA a predicted 68.8% chance to win outright against NAVY. No sportsbook spread was available for this game, so the pick is based on who's more likely to win outright.

UTSA also grades out as the better team this season, which backs up the pick.

This pick is worth 40 confidence points this week — the more points assigned, the more confident the model is.

Reasoning & ESPN stats ▾

Reasoning

  1. Regressed preseason ratings from the 2025 season, pulled toward league-average (regression retains 65% of the raw historical rating): UTSA +0.44 vs NAVY +1.84.
  2. Blended with this season's to-date rating (85.0% weight for UTSA, 85.0% for NAVY, based on games played so far) → model rating of UTSA +1.37 vs NAVY -1.68.
  3. Add home-field edge (~+2.50 pts) → predicted margin of +5.5 pts for UTSA.
  4. Predicted margin converts to a straight-up win probability of 68.8% UTSA / 31.2% NAVY (source: ESPN model).
  5. No sportsbook spread was available for this game, so ATS probability could not be computed.
  6. Decision basis: straight-up fallback — requested ATS mode but no spread was available for this game.
Projected score: NAVY 21.2 – UTSA 26.8

ESPN team stats

UTSA (home)NAVY (away)
Record 6-6 10-2
Win % 50.0% 83.3%
Points for / game 33.8 31.2
Points against / game 29.6 26.0
Avg scoring margin +4.2 +5.2
Strength of schedule +0.339 +0.447
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) #20 of 136 (+6.4) #38 of 136 (+3.9)
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) #88 of 136 (-2.1) #47 of 136 (+2.5)
Season rating (SOS-adjusted) +0.67 +2.83
Regressed preseason rating +0.44 +1.84
Blended rating (used by model) +1.37 -1.68
In-season blend weight 85.0% 85.0%
UTSA (home)NAVY (away)
Record 6-1 2-4
Win % 85.7% 33.3%
Points for / game 32.3 28.2
Points against / game 27.0 25.8
Avg scoring margin +5.3 +2.3
Strength of schedule -1.892 +0.817
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) #38 of 138 (+5.1) #58 of 138 (+1.6)
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) #87 of 138 (-1.9) #61 of 138 (+0.7)
Team rating (SOS-adjusted) +1.54 -2.30
#36 · 39 pts Win % (no spread)

TOL @ EMU

Toledo Rockets at Eastern Michigan Eagles
Pick Toledo Rockets
Win % (no spread)
68.7% (TOL)
Market spread
No line
Books
—
No sportsbook spread available for this game; fell back to straight-up win probability.
Basic reasoning ▾

We're picking Toledo Rockets.

Our model gives TOL a predicted 68.7% chance to win outright against EMU. No sportsbook spread was available for this game, so the pick is based on who's more likely to win outright.

TOL also grades out as the better team this season, which backs up the pick.

This pick is worth 39 confidence points this week — the more points assigned, the more confident the model is.

Reasoning & ESPN stats ▾

Reasoning

  1. Regressed preseason ratings from the 2025 season, pulled toward league-average (regression retains 65% of the raw historical rating): EMU -3.01 vs TOL +4.80.
  2. Blended with this season's to-date rating (85.0% weight for EMU, 85.0% for TOL, based on games played so far) → model rating of EMU -4.42 vs TOL +3.59.
  3. Add home-field edge (~+2.50 pts) → predicted margin of -5.5 pts for EMU.
  4. Predicted margin converts to a straight-up win probability of 31.3% EMU / 68.7% TOL (source: ESPN model).
  5. No sportsbook spread was available for this game, so ATS probability could not be computed.
  6. Decision basis: straight-up fallback — requested ATS mode but no spread was available for this game.
Projected score: TOL 26.8 – EMU 21.2

ESPN team stats

EMU (home)TOL (away)
Record 4-8 8-4
Win % 33.3% 66.7%
Points for / game 24.1 31.6
Points against / game 29.8 12.2
Avg scoring margin -5.7 +19.4
Strength of schedule -1.933 -2.782
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) #75 of 136 (-0.8) #37 of 136 (+4.1)
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) #112 of 136 (-5.3) #7 of 136 (+9.0)
Season rating (SOS-adjusted) -4.64 +7.39
Regressed preseason rating -3.01 +4.80
Blended rating (used by model) -4.42 +3.59
In-season blend weight 85.0% 85.0%
EMU (home)TOL (away)
Record 4-4 5-2
Win % 50.0% 71.4%
Points for / game 21.5 36.3
Points against / game 25.9 23.6
Avg scoring margin -4.4 +12.7
Strength of schedule -3.348 -6.662
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) #93 of 138 (-3.9) #20 of 138 (+8.6)
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) #116 of 138 (-6.6) #111 of 138 (-5.5)
Team rating (SOS-adjusted) -4.67 +3.38
#38 · 37 pts Win % (no spread)

BALL @ BGSU

Ball State Cardinals at Bowling Green Falcons
Pick Bowling Green Falcons
Win % (no spread)
66.0% (BGSU)
Market spread
No line
Books
—
No sportsbook spread available for this game; fell back to straight-up win probability.
Basic reasoning ▾

We're picking Bowling Green Falcons.

Our model gives BGSU a predicted 66.0% chance to win outright against BALL. No sportsbook spread was available for this game, so the pick is based on who's more likely to win outright.

BGSU also grades out as the better team this season, which backs up the pick.

This pick is worth 37 confidence points this week — the more points assigned, the more confident the model is.

Reasoning & ESPN stats ▾

Reasoning

  1. Regressed preseason ratings from the 2025 season, pulled toward league-average (regression retains 65% of the raw historical rating): BGSU -2.56 vs BALL -5.26.
  2. Blended with this season's to-date rating (85.0% weight for BGSU, 85.0% for BALL, based on games played so far) → model rating of BGSU -7.79 vs BALL -9.93.
  3. Add home-field edge (~+2.50 pts) → predicted margin of +4.6 pts for BGSU.
  4. Predicted margin converts to a straight-up win probability of 66.0% BGSU / 34.0% BALL (source: ESPN model).
  5. No sportsbook spread was available for this game, so ATS probability could not be computed.
  6. Decision basis: straight-up fallback — requested ATS mode but no spread was available for this game.
Projected score: BALL 21.7 – BGSU 26.3

ESPN team stats

BGSU (home)BALL (away)
Record 4-8 4-8
Win % 33.3% 33.3%
Points for / game 20.5 15.8
Points against / game 24.2 29.8
Avg scoring margin -3.8 -14.0
Strength of schedule -1.945 -1.158
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) #100 of 136 (-3.7) #130 of 136 (-10.8)
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) #72 of 136 (-1.0) #108 of 136 (-4.8)
Season rating (SOS-adjusted) -3.93 -8.10
Regressed preseason rating -2.56 -5.26
Blended rating (used by model) -7.79 -9.93
In-season blend weight 85.0% 85.0%
BGSU (home)BALL (away)
Record 2-5 2-5
Win % 28.6% 28.6%
Points for / game 18.0 20.3
Points against / game 29.6 37.9
Avg scoring margin -11.6 -17.6
Strength of schedule -2.407 +1.068
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) #107 of 138 (-6.2) #123 of 138 (-9.4)
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) #121 of 138 (-7.9) #137 of 138 (-13.4)
Team rating (SOS-adjusted) -8.72 -10.75
#39 · 36 pts Win % (no spread)

WMU @ CMU

Western Michigan Broncos at Central Michigan Chippewas
Pick Western Michigan Broncos
Win % (no spread)
65.3% (WMU)
Market spread
No line
Books
—
No sportsbook spread available for this game; fell back to straight-up win probability.
Basic reasoning ▾

We're picking Western Michigan Broncos.

Our model gives WMU a predicted 65.3% chance to win outright against CMU. No sportsbook spread was available for this game, so the pick is based on who's more likely to win outright.

WMU also grades out as the better team this season, which backs up the pick.

This pick is worth 36 confidence points this week — the more points assigned, the more confident the model is.

Reasoning & ESPN stats ▾

Reasoning

  1. Regressed preseason ratings from the 2025 season, pulled toward league-average (regression retains 65% of the raw historical rating): CMU -0.38 vs WMU +1.18.
  2. Blended with this season's to-date rating (85.0% weight for CMU, 85.0% for WMU, based on games played so far) → model rating of CMU -5.48 vs WMU +1.43.
  3. Add home-field edge (~+2.50 pts) → predicted margin of -4.4 pts for CMU.
  4. Predicted margin converts to a straight-up win probability of 34.7% CMU / 65.3% WMU (source: ESPN model).
  5. No sportsbook spread was available for this game, so ATS probability could not be computed.
  6. Decision basis: straight-up fallback — requested ATS mode but no spread was available for this game.
Projected score: WMU 26.2 – CMU 21.8

ESPN team stats

CMU (home)WMU (away)
Record 7-5 9-4
Win % 58.3% 69.2%
Points for / game 23.8 23.6
Points against / game 22.7 18.2
Avg scoring margin +1.2 +5.4
Strength of schedule -2.552 -1.528
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) #84 of 136 (-1.8) #92 of 136 (-2.4)
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) #64 of 136 (+0.1) #18 of 136 (+6.3)
Season rating (SOS-adjusted) -0.59 +1.81
Regressed preseason rating -0.38 +1.18
Blended rating (used by model) -5.48 +1.43
In-season blend weight 85.0% 85.0%
CMU (home)WMU (away)
Record 3-4 5-2
Win % 42.9% 71.4%
Points for / game 16.6 25.0
Points against / game 25.6 16.9
Avg scoring margin -9.0 +8.1
Strength of schedule +3.120 -4.883
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) #121 of 138 (-9.0) #98 of 138 (-4.4)
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) #68 of 138 (+0.2) #57 of 138 (+1.5)
Team rating (SOS-adjusted) -6.38 +1.48
#40 · 35 pts Win % (no spread)

MIZ @ MISS

Missouri Tigers at Ole Miss Rebels
Pick Ole Miss Rebels
Win % (no spread)
64.1% (MISS)
Market spread
No line
Books
—
No sportsbook spread available for this game; fell back to straight-up win probability.
Basic reasoning ▾

We're picking Ole Miss Rebels.

Our model gives MISS a predicted 64.1% chance to win outright against MIZ. No sportsbook spread was available for this game, so the pick is based on who's more likely to win outright.

MISS also grades out as the better team this season, which backs up the pick.

This pick is worth 35 confidence points this week — the more points assigned, the more confident the model is.

Reasoning & ESPN stats ▾

Reasoning

  1. Regressed preseason ratings from the 2025 season, pulled toward league-average (regression retains 65% of the raw historical rating): MISS +5.30 vs MIZ +3.25.
  2. Blended with this season's to-date rating (85.0% weight for MISS, 85.0% for MIZ, based on games played so far) → model rating of MISS +5.13 vs MIZ +3.58.
  3. Add home-field edge (~+2.50 pts) → predicted margin of +4.0 pts for MISS.
  4. Predicted margin converts to a straight-up win probability of 64.1% MISS / 35.9% MIZ (source: ESPN model).
  5. No sportsbook spread was available for this game, so ATS probability could not be computed.
  6. Decision basis: straight-up fallback — requested ATS mode but no spread was available for this game.
Projected score: MIZ 22.0 – MISS 26.0

ESPN team stats

MISS (home)MIZ (away)
Record 11-1 8-4
Win % 91.7% 66.7%
Points for / game 37.2 32.2
Points against / game 20.1 19.4
Avg scoring margin +17.2 +12.8
Strength of schedule -0.686 +0.258
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) #16 of 136 (+7.4) #42 of 136 (+3.5)
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) #57 of 136 (+0.6) #29 of 136 (+4.7)
Season rating (SOS-adjusted) +8.16 +5.01
Regressed preseason rating +5.30 +3.25
Blended rating (used by model) +5.13 +3.58
In-season blend weight 85.0% 85.0%
MISS (home)MIZ (away)
Record 5-1 5-2
Win % 83.3% 71.4%
Points for / game 37.5 31.1
Points against / game 23.8 19.6
Avg scoring margin +13.7 +11.6
Strength of schedule +0.011 +1.626
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) #12 of 138 (+10.9) #62 of 138 (+1.5)
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) #41 of 138 (+3.8) #10 of 138 (+9.1)
Team rating (SOS-adjusted) +5.10 +3.64
#41 · 34 pts Win % (no spread)

UVA @ SMU

Virginia Cavaliers at SMU Mustangs
Pick SMU Mustangs
Win % (no spread)
64.0% (SMU)
Market spread
No line
Books
—
No sportsbook spread available for this game; fell back to straight-up win probability.
Basic reasoning ▾

We're picking SMU Mustangs.

Our model gives SMU a predicted 64.0% chance to win outright against UVA. No sportsbook spread was available for this game, so the pick is based on who's more likely to win outright.

SMU also grades out as the better team this season, which backs up the pick.

This pick is worth 34 confidence points this week — the more points assigned, the more confident the model is.

Reasoning & ESPN stats ▾

Reasoning

  1. Regressed preseason ratings from the 2025 season, pulled toward league-average (regression retains 65% of the raw historical rating): SMU +3.07 vs UVA +3.22.
  2. Blended with this season's to-date rating (85.0% weight for SMU, 85.0% for UVA, based on games played so far) → model rating of SMU +3.78 vs UVA +2.26.
  3. Add home-field edge (~+2.50 pts) → predicted margin of +4.0 pts for SMU.
  4. Predicted margin converts to a straight-up win probability of 64.0% SMU / 36.0% UVA (source: ESPN model).
  5. No sportsbook spread was available for this game, so ATS probability could not be computed.
  6. Decision basis: straight-up fallback — requested ATS mode but no spread was available for this game.
Projected score: UVA 22.0 – SMU 26.0

ESPN team stats

SMU (home)UVA (away)
Record 8-4 10-3
Win % 66.7% 76.9%
Points for / game 32.9 32.1
Points against / game 20.7 20.5
Avg scoring margin +12.2 +11.6
Strength of schedule -0.769 -1.231
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) #21 of 136 (+6.4) #31 of 136 (+5.1)
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) #38 of 136 (+3.5) #35 of 136 (+3.6)
Season rating (SOS-adjusted) +4.72 +4.95
Regressed preseason rating +3.07 +3.22
Blended rating (used by model) +3.78 +2.26
In-season blend weight 85.0% 85.0%
SMU (home)UVA (away)
Record 5-1 4-3
Win % 83.3% 57.1%
Points for / game 32.7 30.0
Points against / game 21.3 19.7
Avg scoring margin +11.3 +10.3
Strength of schedule -1.518 -0.675
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) #49 of 138 (+2.7) #57 of 138 (+1.8)
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) #50 of 138 (+2.5) #38 of 138 (+4.2)
Team rating (SOS-adjusted) +3.90 +2.10
#43 · 32 pts Win % (no spread)

TCU @ BAY

TCU Horned Frogs at Baylor Bears
Pick Baylor Bears
Win % (no spread)
63.5% (BAY)
Market spread
No line
Books
—
No sportsbook spread available for this game; fell back to straight-up win probability.
Basic reasoning ▾

We're picking Baylor Bears.

Our model gives BAY a predicted 63.5% chance to win outright against TCU. No sportsbook spread was available for this game, so the pick is based on who's more likely to win outright.

BAY also grades out as the better team this season, which backs up the pick.

This pick is worth 32 confidence points this week — the more points assigned, the more confident the model is.

Reasoning & ESPN stats ▾

Reasoning

  1. Regressed preseason ratings from the 2025 season, pulled toward league-average (regression retains 65% of the raw historical rating): BAY -1.30 vs TCU +1.33.
  2. Blended with this season's to-date rating (85.0% weight for BAY, 85.0% for TCU, based on games played so far) → model rating of BAY +3.75 vs TCU +2.36.
  3. Add home-field edge (~+2.50 pts) → predicted margin of +3.9 pts for BAY.
  4. Predicted margin converts to a straight-up win probability of 63.5% BAY / 36.5% TCU (source: ESPN model).
  5. No sportsbook spread was available for this game, so ATS probability could not be computed.
  6. Decision basis: straight-up fallback — requested ATS mode but no spread was available for this game.
Projected score: TCU 22.1 – BAY 25.9

ESPN team stats

BAY (home)TCU (away)
Record 5-7 8-4
Win % 41.7% 66.7%
Points for / game 31.1 30.8
Points against / game 32.6 25.2
Avg scoring margin -1.5 +5.6
Strength of schedule +1.613 -0.011
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) #46 of 136 (+2.6) #41 of 136 (+3.6)
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) #129 of 136 (-7.9) #67 of 136 (-0.5)
Season rating (SOS-adjusted) -2.00 +2.05
Regressed preseason rating -1.30 +1.33
Blended rating (used by model) +3.75 +2.36
In-season blend weight 85.0% 85.0%
BAY (home)TCU (away)
Record 4-2 3-3
Win % 66.7% 50.0%
Points for / game 30.0 24.0
Points against / game 14.7 12.2
Avg scoring margin +15.3 +11.8
Strength of schedule -0.830 +2.637
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) #72 of 138 (-0.5) #132 of 138 (-12.8)
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) #52 of 138 (+2.4) #7 of 138 (+9.8)
Team rating (SOS-adjusted) +4.64 +2.54
#46 · 29 pts Win % (no spread)

MEM @ TULN

Memphis Tigers at Tulane Green Wave
Pick Memphis Tigers
Win % (no spread)
61.6% (MEM)
Market spread
No line
Books
—
No sportsbook spread available for this game; fell back to straight-up win probability.
Basic reasoning ▾

We're picking Memphis Tigers.

Our model gives MEM a predicted 61.6% chance to win outright against TULN. No sportsbook spread was available for this game, so the pick is based on who's more likely to win outright.

MEM also grades out as the better team this season, which backs up the pick.

This pick is worth 29 confidence points this week — the more points assigned, the more confident the model is.

Reasoning & ESPN stats ▾

Reasoning

  1. Regressed preseason ratings from the 2025 season, pulled toward league-average (regression retains 65% of the raw historical rating): TULN +2.17 vs MEM +2.98.
  2. Blended with this season's to-date rating (85.0% weight for TULN, 85.0% for MEM, based on games played so far) → model rating of TULN -2.09 vs MEM +3.72.
  3. Add home-field edge (~+2.50 pts) → predicted margin of -3.3 pts for TULN.
  4. Predicted margin converts to a straight-up win probability of 38.4% TULN / 61.6% MEM (source: ESPN model).
  5. No sportsbook spread was available for this game, so ATS probability could not be computed.
  6. Decision basis: straight-up fallback — requested ATS mode but no spread was available for this game.
Projected score: MEM 25.7 – TULN 22.3

ESPN team stats

TULN (home)MEM (away)
Record 11-2 8-4
Win % 84.6% 66.7%
Points for / game 29.1 34.6
Points against / game 22.6 22.5
Avg scoring margin +6.5 +12.1
Strength of schedule -0.004 -1.818
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) #36 of 136 (+4.1) #15 of 136 (+8.9)
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) #26 of 136 (+5.5) #39 of 136 (+3.5)
Season rating (SOS-adjusted) +3.34 +4.58
Regressed preseason rating +2.17 +2.98
Blended rating (used by model) -2.09 +3.72
In-season blend weight 85.0% 85.0%
TULN (home)MEM (away)
Record 3-3 5-2
Win % 50.0% 71.4%
Points for / game 20.5 35.4
Points against / game 21.7 22.3
Avg scoring margin -1.2 +13.1
Strength of schedule +2.091 -3.467
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) #84 of 138 (-2.7) #27 of 138 (+7.6)
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) #17 of 138 (+7.7) #55 of 138 (+1.9)
Team rating (SOS-adjusted) -2.85 +3.85
#47 · 28 pts Win % (no spread)

FLA @ TEX

Florida Gators at Texas Longhorns
Pick Texas Longhorns
Win % (no spread)
61.5% (TEX)
Market spread
No line
Books
—
No sportsbook spread available for this game; fell back to straight-up win probability.
Basic reasoning ▾

We're picking Texas Longhorns.

Our model gives TEX a predicted 61.5% chance to win outright against FLA. No sportsbook spread was available for this game, so the pick is based on who's more likely to win outright.

TEX also grades out as the better team this season, which backs up the pick.

This pick is worth 28 confidence points this week — the more points assigned, the more confident the model is.

Reasoning & ESPN stats ▾

Reasoning

  1. Regressed preseason ratings from the 2025 season, pulled toward league-average (regression retains 65% of the raw historical rating): TEX +2.76 vs FLA -1.74.
  2. Blended with this season's to-date rating (85.0% weight for TEX, 85.0% for FLA, based on games played so far) → model rating of TEX +3.75 vs FLA +2.98.
  3. Add home-field edge (~+2.50 pts) → predicted margin of +3.3 pts for TEX.
  4. Predicted margin converts to a straight-up win probability of 61.5% TEX / 38.5% FLA (source: ESPN model).
  5. No sportsbook spread was available for this game, so ATS probability could not be computed.
  6. Decision basis: straight-up fallback — requested ATS mode but no spread was available for this game.
Projected score: FLA 22.4 – TEX 25.6

ESPN team stats

TEX (home)FLA (away)
Record 9-3 4-8
Win % 75.0% 33.3%
Points for / game 29.6 21.6
Points against / game 19.8 24.0
Avg scoring margin +9.8 -2.4
Strength of schedule +0.521 +4.939
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) #45 of 136 (+2.8) #129 of 136 (-10.6)
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) #22 of 136 (+5.9) #41 of 136 (+3.3)
Season rating (SOS-adjusted) +4.25 -2.68
Regressed preseason rating +2.76 -1.74
Blended rating (used by model) +3.75 +2.98
In-season blend weight 85.0% 85.0%
TEX (home)FLA (away)
Record 4-2 5-2
Win % 66.7% 71.4%
Points for / game 30.2 39.6
Points against / game 17.8 28.3
Avg scoring margin +12.3 +11.3
Strength of schedule +4.137 +2.829
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) #59 of 138 (+1.6) #25 of 138 (+8.0)
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) #2 of 138 (+13.0) #89 of 138 (-1.9)
Team rating (SOS-adjusted) +3.92 +3.81
#48 · 27 pts Win % (no spread)

ARK @ VAN

Arkansas Razorbacks at Vanderbilt Commodores
Pick Vanderbilt Commodores
Win % (no spread)
60.9% (VAN)
Market spread
No line
Books
—
No sportsbook spread available for this game; fell back to straight-up win probability.
Basic reasoning ▾

We're picking Vanderbilt Commodores.

Our model gives VAN a predicted 60.9% chance to win outright against ARK. No sportsbook spread was available for this game, so the pick is based on who's more likely to win outright.

VAN also grades out as the better team this season, which backs up the pick.

This pick is worth 27 confidence points this week — the more points assigned, the more confident the model is.

Reasoning & ESPN stats ▾

Reasoning

  1. Regressed preseason ratings from the 2025 season, pulled toward league-average (regression retains 65% of the raw historical rating): VAN +5.17 vs ARK -1.82.
  2. Blended with this season's to-date rating (85.0% weight for VAN, 85.0% for ARK, based on games played so far) → model rating of VAN -3.72 vs ARK -4.33.
  3. Add home-field edge (~+2.50 pts) → predicted margin of +3.1 pts for VAN.
  4. Predicted margin converts to a straight-up win probability of 60.9% VAN / 39.1% ARK (source: ESPN model).
  5. No sportsbook spread was available for this game, so ATS probability could not be computed.
  6. Decision basis: straight-up fallback — requested ATS mode but no spread was available for this game.
Projected score: ARK 22.4 – VAN 25.6

ESPN team stats

VAN (home)ARK (away)
Record 10-2 2-10
Win % 83.3% 16.7%
Points for / game 39.4 32.9
Points against / game 21.9 33.8
Avg scoring margin +17.5 -0.9
Strength of schedule -0.037 +4.335
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) #8 of 136 (+11.4) #50 of 136 (+2.2)
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) #58 of 136 (+0.4) #119 of 136 (-6.3)
Season rating (SOS-adjusted) +7.95 -2.80
Regressed preseason rating +5.17 -1.82
Blended rating (used by model) -3.72 -4.33
In-season blend weight 85.0% 85.0%
VAN (home)ARK (away)
Record 3-4 3-4
Win % 42.9% 42.9%
Points for / game 23.6 21.0
Points against / game 29.7 26.7
Avg scoring margin -6.1 -5.7
Strength of schedule +1.086 +4.993
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) #96 of 138 (-4.3) #120 of 138 (-8.9)
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) #113 of 138 (-5.9) #67 of 138 (+0.2)
Team rating (SOS-adjusted) -5.28 -4.77
#49 · 26 pts Win % (no spread)

ALA @ TENN

Alabama Crimson Tide at Tennessee Volunteers
Pick Tennessee Volunteers
Win % (no spread)
60.2% (TENN)
Market spread
No line
Books
—
No sportsbook spread available for this game; fell back to straight-up win probability.
Basic reasoning ▾

We're picking Tennessee Volunteers.

Our model gives TENN a predicted 60.2% chance to win outright against ALA. No sportsbook spread was available for this game, so the pick is based on who's more likely to win outright.

TENN also grades out as the better team this season, which backs up the pick.

This pick is worth 26 confidence points this week — the more points assigned, the more confident the model is.

Reasoning & ESPN stats ▾

Reasoning

  1. Regressed preseason ratings from the 2025 season, pulled toward league-average (regression retains 65% of the raw historical rating): TENN +3.13 vs ALA +4.03.
  2. Blended with this season's to-date rating (85.0% weight for TENN, 85.0% for ALA, based on games played so far) → model rating of TENN +6.53 vs ALA +6.13.
  3. Add home-field edge (~+2.50 pts) → predicted margin of +2.9 pts for TENN.
  4. Predicted margin converts to a straight-up win probability of 60.2% TENN / 39.8% ALA (source: ESPN model).
  5. No sportsbook spread was available for this game, so ATS probability could not be computed.
  6. Decision basis: straight-up fallback — requested ATS mode but no spread was available for this game.
Projected score: ALA 22.6 – TENN 25.4

ESPN team stats

TENN (home)ALA (away)
Record 8-4 10-3
Win % 66.7% 76.9%
Points for / game 40.8 31.2
Points against / game 28.8 17.4
Avg scoring margin +12.0 +13.8
Strength of schedule -0.343 +2.444
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) #9 of 136 (+11.2) #73 of 136 (-0.7)
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) #109 of 136 (-5.2) #17 of 136 (+6.4)
Season rating (SOS-adjusted) +4.82 +6.21
Regressed preseason rating +3.13 +4.03
Blended rating (used by model) +6.53 +6.13
In-season blend weight 85.0% 85.0%
TENN (home)ALA (away)
Record 6-1 5-2
Win % 85.7% 71.4%
Points for / game 33.4 39.3
Points against / game 14.7 21.4
Avg scoring margin +18.7 +17.9
Strength of schedule -0.645 +3.067
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) #65 of 138 (+1.1) #11 of 138 (+11.2)
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) #8 of 138 (+9.6) #15 of 138 (+8.0)
Team rating (SOS-adjusted) +7.12 +6.50
#50 · 25 pts Win % (no spread)

FRES @ SDSU

Fresno State Bulldogs at San Diego State Aztecs
Pick Fresno State Bulldogs
Win % (no spread)
59.9% (FRES)
Market spread
No line
Books
—
No sportsbook spread available for this game; fell back to straight-up win probability.
Basic reasoning ▾

We're picking Fresno State Bulldogs.

Our model gives FRES a predicted 59.9% chance to win outright against SDSU. No sportsbook spread was available for this game, so the pick is based on who's more likely to win outright.

FRES also grades out as the better team this season, which backs up the pick.

This pick is worth 25 confidence points this week — the more points assigned, the more confident the model is.

Reasoning & ESPN stats ▾

Reasoning

  1. Regressed preseason ratings from the 2025 season, pulled toward league-average (regression retains 65% of the raw historical rating): SDSU +3.10 vs FRES +1.29.
  2. Blended with this season's to-date rating (85.0% weight for SDSU, 85.0% for FRES, based on games played so far) → model rating of SDSU -4.94 vs FRES +0.37.
  3. Add home-field edge (~+2.50 pts) → predicted margin of -2.8 pts for SDSU.
  4. Predicted margin converts to a straight-up win probability of 40.1% SDSU / 59.9% FRES (source: ESPN model).
  5. No sportsbook spread was available for this game, so ATS probability could not be computed.
  6. Decision basis: straight-up fallback — requested ATS mode but no spread was available for this game.
Projected score: FRES 25.4 – SDSU 22.6

ESPN team stats

SDSU (home)FRES (away)
Record 9-3 8-4
Win % 75.0% 66.7%
Points for / game 24.7 26.4
Points against / game 12.6 20.1
Avg scoring margin +12.1 +6.3
Strength of schedule -2.446 -2.849
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) #96 of 136 (-2.8) #82 of 136 (-1.4)
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) #9 of 136 (+8.9) #51 of 136 (+1.7)
Season rating (SOS-adjusted) +4.77 +1.98
Regressed preseason rating +3.10 +1.29
Blended rating (used by model) -4.94 +0.37
In-season blend weight 85.0% 85.0%
SDSU (home)FRES (away)
Record 3-4 4-3
Win % 42.9% 57.1%
Points for / game 23.3 27.6
Points against / game 33.3 20.9
Avg scoring margin -10.0 +6.7
Strength of schedule +5.989 -4.597
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) #113 of 138 (-7.4) #47 of 138 (+3.3)
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) #64 of 138 (+0.5) #62 of 138 (+0.7)
Team rating (SOS-adjusted) -6.36 +0.20
#52 · 23 pts Win % (no spread)

NEB @ ORE

Nebraska Cornhuskers at Oregon Ducks
Pick Oregon Ducks
Win % (no spread)
58.7% (ORE)
Market spread
No line
Books
—
No sportsbook spread available for this game; fell back to straight-up win probability.
Basic reasoning ▾

We're picking Oregon Ducks.

Our model gives ORE a predicted 58.7% chance to win outright against NEB. No sportsbook spread was available for this game, so the pick is based on who's more likely to win outright.

NEB grades out as the stronger team by rating alone, but ORE is at home, and a 2.5-point home-field edge is enough to flip our model's win probability in their favor.

This pick is worth 23 confidence points this week — the more points assigned, the more confident the model is.

Reasoning & ESPN stats ▾

Reasoning

  1. Regressed preseason ratings from the 2025 season, pulled toward league-average (regression retains 65% of the raw historical rating): ORE +7.02 vs NEB +1.19.
  2. Blended with this season's to-date rating (85.0% weight for ORE, 85.0% for NEB, based on games played so far) → model rating of ORE +6.06 vs NEB +6.12.
  3. Add home-field edge (~+2.50 pts) → predicted margin of +2.4 pts for ORE.
  4. Predicted margin converts to a straight-up win probability of 58.7% ORE / 41.3% NEB (source: ESPN model).
  5. No sportsbook spread was available for this game, so ATS probability could not be computed.
  6. Decision basis: straight-up fallback — requested ATS mode but no spread was available for this game.
Projected score: NEB 22.8 – ORE 25.2

ESPN team stats

ORE (home)NEB (away)
Record 11-1 7-5
Win % 91.7% 58.3%
Points for / game 38.2 29.2
Points against / game 14.8 23.0
Avg scoring margin +23.3 +6.2
Strength of schedule +0.514 -0.145
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) #14 of 136 (+9.0) #64 of 136 (+0.7)
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) #12 of 136 (+8.6) #65 of 136 (+0.0)
Season rating (SOS-adjusted) +10.79 +1.82
Regressed preseason rating +7.02 +1.19
Blended rating (used by model) +6.06 +6.12
In-season blend weight 85.0% 85.0%
ORE (home)NEB (away)
Record 4-2 5-2
Win % 66.7% 71.4%
Points for / game 37.0 35.6
Points against / game 20.7 15.4
Avg scoring margin +16.3 +20.1
Strength of schedule +6.287 -0.521
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) #80 of 138 (-1.8) #26 of 138 (+7.8)
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) #13 of 138 (+8.6) #11 of 138 (+8.7)
Team rating (SOS-adjusted) +5.89 +6.99
#53 · 22 pts Win % (no spread)

OSU @ IU

Ohio State Buckeyes at Indiana Hoosiers
Pick Indiana Hoosiers
Win % (no spread)
58.3% (IU)
Market spread
No line
Books
—
No sportsbook spread available for this game; fell back to straight-up win probability.
Basic reasoning ▾

We're picking Indiana Hoosiers.

Our model gives IU a predicted 58.3% chance to win outright against OSU. No sportsbook spread was available for this game, so the pick is based on who's more likely to win outright.

OSU grades out as the stronger team by rating alone, but IU is at home, and a 2.5-point home-field edge is enough to flip our model's win probability in their favor.

This pick is worth 22 confidence points this week — the more points assigned, the more confident the model is.

Reasoning & ESPN stats ▾

Reasoning

  1. Regressed preseason ratings from the 2025 season, pulled toward league-average (regression retains 65% of the raw historical rating): IU +9.42 vs OSU +7.92.
  2. Blended with this season's to-date rating (85.0% weight for IU, 85.0% for OSU, based on games played so far) → model rating of IU +9.57 vs OSU +9.72.
  3. Add home-field edge (~+2.50 pts) → predicted margin of +2.3 pts for IU.
  4. Predicted margin converts to a straight-up win probability of 58.3% IU / 41.7% OSU (source: ESPN model).
  5. No sportsbook spread was available for this game, so ATS probability could not be computed.
  6. Decision basis: straight-up fallback — requested ATS mode but no spread was available for this game.
Projected score: OSU 22.8 – IU 25.2

ESPN team stats

IU (home)OSU (away)
Record 13-0 12-1
Win % 100.0% 92.3%
Points for / game 41.9 34.9
Points against / game 10.8 8.2
Avg scoring margin +31.1 +26.8
Strength of schedule +0.948 +0.784
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) #10 of 136 (+10.8) #32 of 136 (+4.9)
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) #2 of 136 (+12.8) #1 of 136 (+15.2)
Season rating (SOS-adjusted) +14.49 +12.18
Regressed preseason rating +9.42 +7.92
Blended rating (used by model) +9.57 +9.72
In-season blend weight 85.0% 85.0%
IU (home)OSU (away)
Record 6-1 6-1
Win % 85.7% 85.7%
Points for / game 36.6 39.3
Points against / game 12.9 13.4
Avg scoring margin +23.7 +25.9
Strength of schedule +3.180 -1.638
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) #29 of 138 (+7.4) #8 of 138 (+12.5)
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) #1 of 138 (+15.1) #9 of 138 (+9.3)
Team rating (SOS-adjusted) +9.59 +10.04
#54 · 21 pts Win % (no spread)

PSU @ MICH

Penn State Nittany Lions at Michigan Wolverines
Pick Michigan Wolverines
Win % (no spread)
58.3% (MICH)
Market spread
No line
Books
—
No sportsbook spread available for this game; fell back to straight-up win probability.
Basic reasoning ▾

We're picking Michigan Wolverines.

Our model gives MICH a predicted 58.3% chance to win outright against PSU. No sportsbook spread was available for this game, so the pick is based on who's more likely to win outright.

PSU grades out as the stronger team by rating alone, but MICH is at home, and a 2.5-point home-field edge is enough to flip our model's win probability in their favor.

This pick is worth 21 confidence points this week — the more points assigned, the more confident the model is.

Reasoning & ESPN stats ▾

Reasoning

  1. Regressed preseason ratings from the 2025 season, pulled toward league-average (regression retains 65% of the raw historical rating): MICH +2.52 vs PSU +2.15.
  2. Blended with this season's to-date rating (85.0% weight for MICH, 85.0% for PSU, based on games played so far) → model rating of MICH +1.16 vs PSU +1.31.
  3. Add home-field edge (~+2.50 pts) → predicted margin of +2.3 pts for MICH.
  4. Predicted margin converts to a straight-up win probability of 58.3% MICH / 41.7% PSU (source: ESPN model).
  5. No sportsbook spread was available for this game, so ATS probability could not be computed.
  6. Decision basis: straight-up fallback — requested ATS mode but no spread was available for this game.
Projected score: PSU 22.8 – MICH 25.2

ESPN team stats

MICH (home)PSU (away)
Record 9-3 6-6
Win % 75.0% 50.0%
Points for / game 27.6 31.8
Points against / game 18.7 21.4
Avg scoring margin +8.9 +10.3
Strength of schedule +0.995 +2.113
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) #72 of 136 (-0.5) #58 of 136 (+1.6)
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) #25 of 136 (+5.6) #37 of 136 (+3.5)
Season rating (SOS-adjusted) +3.88 +3.30
Regressed preseason rating +2.52 +2.15
Blended rating (used by model) +1.16 +1.31
In-season blend weight 85.0% 85.0%
MICH (home)PSU (away)
Record 4-2 3-4
Win % 66.7% 42.9%
Points for / game 22.7 28.7
Points against / game 16.2 18.9
Avg scoring margin +6.5 +9.8
Strength of schedule -0.795 -0.231
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) #100 of 138 (-4.8) #66 of 138 (+1.0)
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) #36 of 138 (+4.4) #23 of 138 (+6.2)
Team rating (SOS-adjusted) +0.92 +1.17
#56 · 19 pts Win % (no spread)

CHSO @ CLEM

Charleston Southern Buccaneers at Clemson Tigers
Pick Clemson Tigers
Win % (no spread)
57.0% (CLEM)
Market spread
No line
Books
—
No sportsbook spread available for this game; fell back to straight-up win probability.
Basic reasoning ▾

We're picking Clemson Tigers.

Our model gives CLEM a predicted 57.0% chance to win outright against CHSO. No sportsbook spread was available for this game, so the pick is based on who's more likely to win outright.

CHSO grades out as the stronger team by rating alone, but CLEM is at home, and a 2.5-point home-field edge is enough to flip our model's win probability in their favor.

This pick is worth 19 confidence points this week — the more points assigned, the more confident the model is.

Reasoning & ESPN stats ▾

Reasoning

  1. Regressed preseason ratings from the 2025 season, pulled toward league-average (regression retains 65% of the raw historical rating): CLEM +1.68 vs CHSO +0.00.
  2. Blended with this season's to-date rating (85.0% weight for CLEM, 40.0% for CHSO, based on games played so far) → model rating of CLEM -0.54 vs CHSO +0.00.
  3. Add home-field edge (~+2.50 pts) → predicted margin of +2.0 pts for CLEM.
  4. Predicted margin converts to a straight-up win probability of 57.0% CLEM / 43.0% CHSO (source: ESPN model).
  5. No sportsbook spread was available for this game, so ATS probability could not be computed.
  6. Decision basis: straight-up fallback — requested ATS mode but no spread was available for this game.
Projected score: CHSO 23.0 – CLEM 25.0

ESPN team stats

CLEM (home)CHSO (away)
Record 7-5 0-2
Win % 58.3% 0.0%
Points for / game 28.7 1.5
Points against / game 20.4 29.0
Avg scoring margin +8.2 -27.5
Strength of schedule -0.455 +0.000
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) #66 of 136 (+0.5) —
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) #43 of 136 (+2.8) —
Season rating (SOS-adjusted) +2.59 +0.00
Regressed preseason rating +1.68 +0.00
Blended rating (used by model) -0.54 +0.00
In-season blend weight 85.0% 40.0%
CLEM (home)CHSO (away)
Record 4-2 0-2
Win % 66.7% 0.0%
Points for / game 22.3 0.0
Points against / game 21.5 34.0
Avg scoring margin +0.8 -34.0
Strength of schedule +3.766 +0.000
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) #124 of 138 (-9.7) —
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) #59 of 138 (+1.0) —
Team rating (SOS-adjusted) -0.93 +0.00
#57 · 18 pts Win % (no spread)

ARST @ USM

Arkansas State Red Wolves at Southern Miss Golden Eagles
Pick Arkansas State Red Wolves
Win % (no spread)
56.4% (ARST)
Market spread
No line
Books
—
No sportsbook spread available for this game; fell back to straight-up win probability.
Basic reasoning ▾

We're picking Arkansas State Red Wolves.

Our model gives ARST a predicted 56.4% chance to win outright against USM. No sportsbook spread was available for this game, so the pick is based on who's more likely to win outright.

ARST also grades out as the better team this season, which backs up the pick.

This pick is worth 18 confidence points this week — the more points assigned, the more confident the model is.

Reasoning & ESPN stats ▾

Reasoning

  1. Regressed preseason ratings from the 2025 season, pulled toward league-average (regression retains 65% of the raw historical rating): USM +0.04 vs ARST -1.70.
  2. Blended with this season's to-date rating (85.0% weight for USM, 85.0% for ARST, based on games played so far) → model rating of USM -6.70 vs ARST -2.40.
  3. Add home-field edge (~+2.50 pts) → predicted margin of -1.8 pts for USM.
  4. Predicted margin converts to a straight-up win probability of 43.6% USM / 56.4% ARST (source: ESPN model).
  5. No sportsbook spread was available for this game, so ATS probability could not be computed.
  6. Decision basis: straight-up fallback — requested ATS mode but no spread was available for this game.
Projected score: ARST 24.9 – USM 23.1

ESPN team stats

USM (home)ARST (away)
Record 7-5 6-6
Win % 58.3% 50.0%
Points for / game 29.8 24.4
Points against / game 27.4 27.3
Avg scoring margin +2.4 -2.9
Strength of schedule -2.284 -2.021
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) #28 of 136 (+5.5) #77 of 136 (-0.9)
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) #77 of 136 (-1.2) #68 of 136 (-0.6)
Season rating (SOS-adjusted) +0.07 -2.62
Regressed preseason rating +0.04 -1.70
Blended rating (used by model) -6.70 -2.40
In-season blend weight 85.0% 85.0%
USM (home)ARST (away)
Record 1-5 3-4
Win % 16.7% 42.9%
Points for / game 24.2 27.4
Points against / game 32.7 26.6
Avg scoring margin -8.5 +0.9
Strength of schedule -1.349 -0.472
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) #109 of 138 (-6.3) #73 of 138 (-0.5)
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) #133 of 138 (-11.6) #102 of 138 (-3.7)
Team rating (SOS-adjusted) -7.88 -2.53
#58 · 17 pts Win % (no spread)

LOU @ SYR

Louisville Cardinals at Syracuse Orange
Pick Louisville Cardinals
Win % (no spread)
56.3% (LOU)
Market spread
No line
Books
—
No sportsbook spread available for this game; fell back to straight-up win probability.
Basic reasoning ▾

We're picking Louisville Cardinals.

Our model gives LOU a predicted 56.3% chance to win outright against SYR. No sportsbook spread was available for this game, so the pick is based on who's more likely to win outright.

LOU also grades out as the better team this season, which backs up the pick.

This pick is worth 17 confidence points this week — the more points assigned, the more confident the model is.

Reasoning & ESPN stats ▾

Reasoning

  1. Regressed preseason ratings from the 2025 season, pulled toward league-average (regression retains 65% of the raw historical rating): SYR -5.39 vs LOU +2.35.
  2. Blended with this season's to-date rating (85.0% weight for SYR, 85.0% for LOU, based on games played so far) → model rating of SYR -1.36 vs LOU +2.90.
  3. Add home-field edge (~+2.50 pts) → predicted margin of -1.8 pts for SYR.
  4. Predicted margin converts to a straight-up win probability of 43.7% SYR / 56.3% LOU (source: ESPN model).
  5. No sportsbook spread was available for this game, so ATS probability could not be computed.
  6. Decision basis: straight-up fallback — requested ATS mode but no spread was available for this game.
Projected score: LOU 24.9 – SYR 23.1

ESPN team stats

SYR (home)LOU (away)
Record 3-9 8-4
Win % 25.0% 66.7%
Points for / game 20.2 30.2
Points against / game 34.9 21.1
Avg scoring margin -14.8 +9.1
Strength of schedule +3.625 +1.519
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) #128 of 136 (-10.6) #63 of 136 (+0.9)
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) #105 of 136 (-4.5) #27 of 136 (+5.5)
Season rating (SOS-adjusted) -8.29 +3.61
Regressed preseason rating -5.39 +2.35
Blended rating (used by model) -1.36 +2.90
In-season blend weight 85.0% 85.0%
SYR (home)LOU (away)
Record 2-4 4-3
Win % 33.3% 57.1%
Points for / game 31.7 38.7
Points against / game 25.7 27.4
Avg scoring margin +6.0 +11.3
Strength of schedule +1.755 +2.573
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) #76 of 138 (-1.3) #23 of 138 (+8.2)
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) #83 of 138 (-1.4) #63 of 138 (+0.7)
Team rating (SOS-adjusted) -0.65 +3.00
#60 · 15 pts Win % (no spread)

APP @ CCU

App State Mountaineers at Coastal Carolina Chanticleers
Pick App State Mountaineers
Win % (no spread)
55.9% (APP)
Market spread
No line
Books
—
No sportsbook spread available for this game; fell back to straight-up win probability.
Basic reasoning ▾

We're picking App State Mountaineers.

Our model gives APP a predicted 55.9% chance to win outright against CCU. No sportsbook spread was available for this game, so the pick is based on who's more likely to win outright.

APP also grades out as the better team this season, which backs up the pick.

This pick is worth 15 confidence points this week — the more points assigned, the more confident the model is.

Reasoning & ESPN stats ▾

Reasoning

  1. Regressed preseason ratings from the 2025 season, pulled toward league-average (regression retains 65% of the raw historical rating): CCU -3.80 vs APP -2.44.
  2. Blended with this season's to-date rating (85.0% weight for CCU, 85.0% for APP, based on games played so far) → model rating of CCU -3.67 vs APP +0.49.
  3. Add home-field edge (~+2.50 pts) → predicted margin of -1.7 pts for CCU.
  4. Predicted margin converts to a straight-up win probability of 44.1% CCU / 55.9% APP (source: ESPN model).
  5. No sportsbook spread was available for this game, so ATS probability could not be computed.
  6. Decision basis: straight-up fallback — requested ATS mode but no spread was available for this game.
Projected score: APP 24.8 – CCU 23.2

ESPN team stats

CCU (home)APP (away)
Record 6-6 5-7
Win % 50.0% 41.7%
Points for / game 22.8 25.3
Points against / game 33.9 29.8
Avg scoring margin -11.1 -4.5
Strength of schedule -0.814 -2.536
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) #86 of 136 (-1.9) #59 of 136 (+1.1)
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) #133 of 136 (-9.7) #117 of 136 (-5.6)
Season rating (SOS-adjusted) -5.84 -3.75
Regressed preseason rating -3.80 -2.44
Blended rating (used by model) -3.67 +0.49
In-season blend weight 85.0% 85.0%
CCU (home)APP (away)
Record 2-5 4-2
Win % 28.6% 66.7%
Points for / game 26.1 29.5
Points against / game 25.9 21.8
Avg scoring margin +0.3 +7.7
Strength of schedule -1.407 -6.013
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) #70 of 138 (+0.1) #55 of 138 (+1.9)
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) #91 of 138 (-2.2) #107 of 138 (-4.6)
Team rating (SOS-adjusted) -3.65 +1.01
#61 · 14 pts Win % (no spread)

WKU @ SHSU

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Sam Houston Bearkats
Pick Sam Houston Bearkats
Win % (no spread)
55.4% (SHSU)
Market spread
No line
Books
—
No sportsbook spread available for this game; fell back to straight-up win probability.
Basic reasoning ▾

We're picking Sam Houston Bearkats.

Our model gives SHSU a predicted 55.4% chance to win outright against WKU. No sportsbook spread was available for this game, so the pick is based on who's more likely to win outright.

WKU grades out as the stronger team by rating alone, but SHSU is at home, and a 2.5-point home-field edge is enough to flip our model's win probability in their favor.

This pick is worth 14 confidence points this week — the more points assigned, the more confident the model is.

Reasoning & ESPN stats ▾

Reasoning

  1. Regressed preseason ratings from the 2025 season, pulled toward league-average (regression retains 65% of the raw historical rating): SHSU -7.42 vs WKU +1.37.
  2. Blended with this season's to-date rating (85.0% weight for SHSU, 85.0% for WKU, based on games played so far) → model rating of SHSU -6.47 vs WKU -5.49.
  3. Add home-field edge (~+2.50 pts) → predicted margin of +1.5 pts for SHSU.
  4. Predicted margin converts to a straight-up win probability of 55.4% SHSU / 44.6% WKU (source: ESPN model).
  5. No sportsbook spread was available for this game, so ATS probability could not be computed.
  6. Decision basis: straight-up fallback — requested ATS mode but no spread was available for this game.
Projected score: WKU 23.2 – SHSU 24.8

ESPN team stats

SHSU (home)WKU (away)
Record 2-10 8-4
Win % 16.7% 66.7%
Points for / game 17.8 29.8
Points against / game 37.8 23.4
Avg scoring margin -20.1 +6.3
Strength of schedule -1.160 -2.247
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) #111 of 136 (-6.6) #52 of 136 (+2.1)
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) #134 of 136 (-10.1) #61 of 136 (+0.3)
Season rating (SOS-adjusted) -11.42 +2.11
Regressed preseason rating -7.42 +1.37
Blended rating (used by model) -6.47 -5.49
In-season blend weight 85.0% 85.0%
SHSU (home)WKU (away)
Record 1-5 3-4
Win % 16.7% 42.9%
Points for / game 19.5 21.3
Points against / game 24.5 30.6
Avg scoring margin -5.0 -9.3
Strength of schedule +1.206 +0.042
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) #133 of 138 (-13.4) #125 of 138 (-9.9)
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) #79 of 138 (-1.1) #125 of 138 (-8.5)
Team rating (SOS-adjusted) -6.31 -6.71
#62 · 13 pts Win % (no spread)

ECU @ UAB

East Carolina Pirates at UAB Blazers
Pick UAB Blazers
Win % (no spread)
54.9% (UAB)
Market spread
No line
Books
—
No sportsbook spread available for this game; fell back to straight-up win probability.
Basic reasoning ▾

We're picking UAB Blazers.

Our model gives UAB a predicted 54.9% chance to win outright against ECU. No sportsbook spread was available for this game, so the pick is based on who's more likely to win outright.

ECU grades out as the stronger team by rating alone, but UAB is at home, and a 2.5-point home-field edge is enough to flip our model's win probability in their favor.

This pick is worth 13 confidence points this week — the more points assigned, the more confident the model is.

Reasoning & ESPN stats ▾

Reasoning

  1. Regressed preseason ratings from the 2025 season, pulled toward league-average (regression retains 65% of the raw historical rating): UAB -4.39 vs ECU +3.26.
  2. Blended with this season's to-date rating (85.0% weight for UAB, 85.0% for ECU, based on games played so far) → model rating of UAB -3.11 vs ECU -1.99.
  3. Add home-field edge (~+2.50 pts) → predicted margin of +1.4 pts for UAB.
  4. Predicted margin converts to a straight-up win probability of 54.9% UAB / 45.1% ECU (source: ESPN model).
  5. No sportsbook spread was available for this game, so ATS probability could not be computed.
  6. Decision basis: straight-up fallback — requested ATS mode but no spread was available for this game.
Projected score: ECU 23.3 – UAB 24.7

ESPN team stats

UAB (home)ECU (away)
Record 4-8 8-4
Win % 33.3% 66.7%
Points for / game 26.4 33.5
Points against / game 38.2 20.3
Avg scoring margin -11.8 +13.2
Strength of schedule +1.392 -1.665
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) #76 of 136 (-0.8) #19 of 136 (+6.4)
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) #123 of 136 (-6.8) #33 of 136 (+3.8)
Season rating (SOS-adjusted) -6.75 +5.01
Regressed preseason rating -4.39 +3.26
Blended rating (used by model) -3.11 -1.99
In-season blend weight 85.0% 85.0%
UAB (home)ECU (away)
Record 4-3 3-3
Win % 57.1% 50.0%
Points for / game 23.3 23.5
Points against / game 24.6 23.8
Avg scoring margin -1.3 -0.3
Strength of schedule -2.284 -2.624
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) #81 of 138 (-2.0) #105 of 138 (-5.7)
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) #69 of 138 (+0.2) #97 of 138 (-2.5)
Team rating (SOS-adjusted) -2.89 -2.92
#65 · 10 pts Win % (no spread)

WASH @ PUR

Washington Huskies at Purdue Boilermakers
Pick Washington Huskies
Win % (no spread)
53.6% (WASH)
Market spread
No line
Books
—
No sportsbook spread available for this game; fell back to straight-up win probability.
Basic reasoning ▾

We're picking Washington Huskies.

Our model gives WASH a predicted 53.6% chance to win outright against PUR. No sportsbook spread was available for this game, so the pick is based on who's more likely to win outright.

WASH also grades out as the better team this season, which backs up the pick.

This pick is worth 10 confidence points this week — the more points assigned, the more confident the model is.

Reasoning & ESPN stats ▾

Reasoning

  1. Regressed preseason ratings from the 2025 season, pulled toward league-average (regression retains 65% of the raw historical rating): PUR -5.21 vs WASH +3.61.
  2. Blended with this season's to-date rating (85.0% weight for PUR, 85.0% for WASH, based on games played so far) → model rating of PUR -3.04 vs WASH +0.48.
  3. Add home-field edge (~+2.50 pts) → predicted margin of -1.0 pts for PUR.
  4. Predicted margin converts to a straight-up win probability of 46.4% PUR / 53.6% WASH (source: ESPN model).
  5. No sportsbook spread was available for this game, so ATS probability could not be computed.
  6. Decision basis: straight-up fallback — requested ATS mode but no spread was available for this game.
Projected score: WASH 24.5 – PUR 23.5

ESPN team stats

PUR (home)WASH (away)
Record 2-10 8-4
Win % 16.7% 66.7%
Points for / game 18.8 33.8
Points against / game 31.8 19.4
Avg scoring margin -13.1 +14.3
Strength of schedule +4.313 -0.958
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) #131 of 136 (-11.6) #43 of 136 (+3.2)
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) #111 of 136 (-5.3) #50 of 136 (+1.8)
Season rating (SOS-adjusted) -8.02 +5.56
Regressed preseason rating -5.21 +3.61
Blended rating (used by model) -3.04 +0.48
In-season blend weight 85.0% 85.0%
PUR (home)WASH (away)
Record 3-4 4-3
Win % 42.9% 57.1%
Points for / game 31.3 27.9
Points against / game 32.3 22.7
Avg scoring margin -1.0 +5.2
Strength of schedule +4.970 -1.127
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) #63 of 138 (+1.3) #82 of 138 (-2.3)
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) #101 of 138 (-3.2) #74 of 138 (-0.3)
Team rating (SOS-adjusted) -2.66 -0.07
#66 · 9 pts Win % (no spread)

RUTG @ MD

Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Maryland Terrapins
Pick Maryland Terrapins
Win % (no spread)
53.6% (MD)
Market spread
No line
Books
—
No sportsbook spread available for this game; fell back to straight-up win probability.
Basic reasoning ▾

We're picking Maryland Terrapins.

Our model gives MD a predicted 53.6% chance to win outright against RUTG. No sportsbook spread was available for this game, so the pick is based on who's more likely to win outright.

RUTG grades out as the stronger team by rating alone, but MD is at home, and a 2.5-point home-field edge is enough to flip our model's win probability in their favor.

This pick is worth 9 confidence points this week — the more points assigned, the more confident the model is.

Reasoning & ESPN stats ▾

Reasoning

  1. Regressed preseason ratings from the 2025 season, pulled toward league-average (regression retains 65% of the raw historical rating): MD -2.22 vs RUTG -1.68.
  2. Blended with this season's to-date rating (85.0% weight for MD, 85.0% for RUTG, based on games played so far) → model rating of MD -4.64 vs RUTG -3.15.
  3. Add home-field edge (~+2.50 pts) → predicted margin of +1.0 pts for MD.
  4. Predicted margin converts to a straight-up win probability of 53.6% MD / 46.4% RUTG (source: ESPN model).
  5. No sportsbook spread was available for this game, so ATS probability could not be computed.
  6. Decision basis: straight-up fallback — requested ATS mode but no spread was available for this game.
Projected score: RUTG 23.5 – MD 24.5

ESPN team stats

MD (home)RUTG (away)
Record 4-8 5-7
Win % 33.3% 41.7%
Points for / game 23.5 28.7
Points against / game 26.5 31.8
Avg scoring margin -3.0 -3.2
Strength of schedule -0.456 +2.908
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) #102 of 136 (-4.0) #91 of 136 (-2.3)
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) #94 of 136 (-3.4) #127 of 136 (-7.5)
Season rating (SOS-adjusted) -3.42 -2.59
Regressed preseason rating -2.22 -1.68
Blended rating (used by model) -4.64 -3.15
In-season blend weight 85.0% 85.0%
MD (home)RUTG (away)
Record 2-5 2-4
Win % 28.6% 33.3%
Points for / game 28.3 31.2
Points against / game 33.3 31.8
Avg scoring margin -5.0 -0.7
Strength of schedule +5.429 +1.285
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) #97 of 138 (-4.4) #85 of 138 (-2.8)
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) #112 of 138 (-5.7) #124 of 138 (-8.2)
Team rating (SOS-adjusted) -5.06 -3.40
#67 · 8 pts Win % (no spread)

GASO @ ODU

Georgia Southern Eagles at Old Dominion Monarchs
Pick Georgia Southern Eagles
Win % (no spread)
53.0% (GASO)
Market spread
No line
Books
—
No sportsbook spread available for this game; fell back to straight-up win probability.
Basic reasoning ▾

We're picking Georgia Southern Eagles.

Our model gives GASO a predicted 53.0% chance to win outright against ODU. No sportsbook spread was available for this game, so the pick is based on who's more likely to win outright.

GASO also grades out as the better team this season, which backs up the pick.

This pick is worth 8 confidence points this week — the more points assigned, the more confident the model is.

Reasoning & ESPN stats ▾

Reasoning

  1. Regressed preseason ratings from the 2025 season, pulled toward league-average (regression retains 65% of the raw historical rating): ODU +3.59 vs GASO -2.42.
  2. Blended with this season's to-date rating (85.0% weight for ODU, 85.0% for GASO, based on games played so far) → model rating of ODU -5.57 vs GASO -2.22.
  3. Add home-field edge (~+2.50 pts) → predicted margin of -0.8 pts for ODU.
  4. Predicted margin converts to a straight-up win probability of 47.0% ODU / 53.0% GASO (source: ESPN model).
  5. No sportsbook spread was available for this game, so ATS probability could not be computed.
  6. Decision basis: straight-up fallback — requested ATS mode but no spread was available for this game.
Projected score: GASO 24.4 – ODU 23.6

ESPN team stats

ODU (home)GASO (away)
Record 9-3 6-6
Win % 75.0% 50.0%
Points for / game 32.7 27.8
Points against / game 19.2 34.2
Avg scoring margin +13.4 -6.3
Strength of schedule -1.932 +0.110
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) #23 of 136 (+5.9) #65 of 136 (+0.6)
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) #24 of 136 (+5.6) #120 of 136 (-6.6)
Season rating (SOS-adjusted) +5.52 -3.73
Regressed preseason rating +3.59 -2.42
Blended rating (used by model) -5.57 -2.22
In-season blend weight 85.0% 85.0%
ODU (home)GASO (away)
Record 2-5 3-4
Win % 28.6% 42.9%
Points for / game 17.7 24.4
Points against / game 26.9 23.0
Avg scoring margin -9.2 +1.4
Strength of schedule +3.182 +1.264
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) #119 of 138 (-8.5) #95 of 138 (-4.3)
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) #78 of 138 (-1.0) #84 of 138 (-1.4)
Team rating (SOS-adjusted) -7.18 -2.18
#70 · 5 pts Win % (no spread)

CIN @ WVU

Cincinnati Bearcats at West Virginia Mountaineers
Pick Cincinnati Bearcats
Win % (no spread)
50.8% (CIN)
Market spread
No line
Books
—
No sportsbook spread available for this game; fell back to straight-up win probability.
Basic reasoning ▾

We're picking Cincinnati Bearcats.

Our model gives CIN a predicted 50.8% chance to win outright against WVU. No sportsbook spread was available for this game, so the pick is based on who's more likely to win outright.

CIN also grades out as the better team this season, which backs up the pick.

This pick is worth 5 confidence points this week — the more points assigned, the more confident the model is.

Reasoning & ESPN stats ▾

Reasoning

  1. Regressed preseason ratings from the 2025 season, pulled toward league-average (regression retains 65% of the raw historical rating): WVU -3.60 vs CIN +1.46.
  2. Blended with this season's to-date rating (85.0% weight for WVU, 85.0% for CIN, based on games played so far) → model rating of WVU -0.70 vs CIN +2.02.
  3. Add home-field edge (~+2.50 pts) → predicted margin of -0.2 pts for WVU.
  4. Predicted margin converts to a straight-up win probability of 49.2% WVU / 50.8% CIN (source: ESPN model).
  5. No sportsbook spread was available for this game, so ATS probability could not be computed.
  6. Decision basis: straight-up fallback — requested ATS mode but no spread was available for this game.
Projected score: CIN 24.1 – WVU 23.9

ESPN team stats

WVU (home)CIN (away)
Record 4-8 7-5
Win % 33.3% 58.3%
Points for / game 21.8 31.8
Points against / game 30.8 24.8
Avg scoring margin -9.1 +6.9
Strength of schedule +3.284 +0.867
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) #120 of 136 (-8.6) #51 of 136 (+2.1)
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) #107 of 136 (-4.7) #74 of 136 (-1.0)
Season rating (SOS-adjusted) -5.54 +2.25
Regressed preseason rating -3.60 +1.46
Blended rating (used by model) -0.70 +2.02
In-season blend weight 85.0% 85.0%
WVU (home)CIN (away)
Record 4-3 4-2
Win % 57.1% 66.7%
Points for / game 37.6 35.2
Points against / game 34.0 26.8
Avg scoring margin +3.6 +8.3
Strength of schedule +2.200 +1.234
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) #21 of 138 (+8.4) #41 of 138 (+4.5)
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) #126 of 138 (-8.5) #77 of 138 (-0.8)
Team rating (SOS-adjusted) -0.18 +2.12
#71 · 4 pts Win % (no spread)

UK @ OU

Kentucky Wildcats at Oklahoma Sooners
Pick Oklahoma Sooners
Win % (no spread)
50.6% (OU)
Market spread
No line
Books
—
No sportsbook spread available for this game; fell back to straight-up win probability.
Basic reasoning ▾

We're picking Oklahoma Sooners.

Our model gives OU a predicted 50.6% chance to win outright against UK. No sportsbook spread was available for this game, so the pick is based on who's more likely to win outright.

UK grades out as the stronger team by rating alone, but OU is at home, and a 2.5-point home-field edge is enough to flip our model's win probability in their favor.

This pick is worth 4 confidence points this week — the more points assigned, the more confident the model is.

Reasoning & ESPN stats ▾

Reasoning

  1. Regressed preseason ratings from the 2025 season, pulled toward league-average (regression retains 65% of the raw historical rating): OU +3.83 vs UK -1.78.
  2. Blended with this season's to-date rating (85.0% weight for OU, 85.0% for UK, based on games played so far) → model rating of OU -0.27 vs UK +2.06.
  3. Add home-field edge (~+2.50 pts) → predicted margin of +0.2 pts for OU.
  4. Predicted margin converts to a straight-up win probability of 50.6% OU / 49.4% UK (source: ESPN model).
  5. No sportsbook spread was available for this game, so ATS probability could not be computed.
  6. Decision basis: straight-up fallback — requested ATS mode but no spread was available for this game.
Projected score: UK 23.9 – OU 24.1

ESPN team stats

OU (home)UK (away)
Record 10-2 5-7
Win % 83.3% 41.7%
Points for / game 26.4 23.0
Points against / game 13.9 26.4
Avg scoring margin +12.5 -3.4
Strength of schedule +2.263 +3.571
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) #88 of 136 (-2.1) #115 of 136 (-7.7)
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) #5 of 136 (+11.0) #63 of 136 (+0.2)
Season rating (SOS-adjusted) +5.89 -2.75
Regressed preseason rating +3.83 -1.78
Blended rating (used by model) -0.27 +2.06
In-season blend weight 85.0% 85.0%
OU (home)UK (away)
Record 3-3 6-1
Win % 50.0% 85.7%
Points for / game 21.3 32.7
Points against / game 18.2 25.9
Avg scoring margin +3.2 +6.8
Strength of schedule +2.869 +3.690
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) #116 of 138 (-7.8) #56 of 138 (+1.9)
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) #14 of 138 (+8.2) #39 of 138 (+3.8)
Team rating (SOS-adjusted) -1.00 +2.74
#72 · 3 pts Win % (no spread)

KENN @ MOST

Kennesaw State Owls at Missouri State Bears
Pick Missouri State Bears
Win % (no spread)
50.6% (MOST)
Market spread
No line
Books
—
No sportsbook spread available for this game; fell back to straight-up win probability.
Basic reasoning ▾

We're picking Missouri State Bears.

Our model gives MOST a predicted 50.6% chance to win outright against KENN. No sportsbook spread was available for this game, so the pick is based on who's more likely to win outright.

KENN grades out as the stronger team by rating alone, but MOST is at home, and a 2.5-point home-field edge is enough to flip our model's win probability in their favor.

This pick is worth 3 confidence points this week — the more points assigned, the more confident the model is.

Reasoning & ESPN stats ▾

Reasoning

  1. Regressed preseason ratings from the 2025 season, pulled toward league-average (regression retains 65% of the raw historical rating): MOST -1.29 vs KENN +1.22.
  2. Blended with this season's to-date rating (85.0% weight for MOST, 85.0% for KENN, based on games played so far) → model rating of MOST -6.21 vs KENN -3.87.
  3. Add home-field edge (~+2.50 pts) → predicted margin of +0.2 pts for MOST.
  4. Predicted margin converts to a straight-up win probability of 50.6% MOST / 49.4% KENN (source: ESPN model).
  5. No sportsbook spread was available for this game, so ATS probability could not be computed.
  6. Decision basis: straight-up fallback — requested ATS mode but no spread was available for this game.
Projected score: KENN 23.9 – MOST 24.1

ESPN team stats

MOST (home)KENN (away)
Record 7-5 10-3
Win % 58.3% 76.9%
Points for / game 25.4 28.3
Points against / game 28.3 24.3
Avg scoring margin -2.9 +4.0
Strength of schedule -0.360 -0.382
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) #85 of 136 (-1.8) #54 of 136 (+1.9)
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) #80 of 136 (-1.4) #48 of 136 (+2.4)
Season rating (SOS-adjusted) -1.98 +1.88
Regressed preseason rating -1.29 +1.22
Blended rating (used by model) -6.21 -3.87
In-season blend weight 85.0% 85.0%
MOST (home)KENN (away)
Record 2-4 1-5
Win % 33.3% 16.7%
Points for / game 22.2 22.3
Points against / game 30.5 23.5
Avg scoring margin -8.3 -1.2
Strength of schedule -2.621 +0.479
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) #111 of 138 (-6.6) #108 of 138 (-6.2)
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) #132 of 138 (-11.3) #98 of 138 (-2.5)
Team rating (SOS-adjusted) -7.08 -4.77
#73 · 2 pts Win % (no spread)

ND @ BYU

Notre Dame Fighting Irish at BYU Cougars
Pick Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Win % (no spread)
50.5% (ND)
Market spread
No line
Books
—
No sportsbook spread available for this game; fell back to straight-up win probability.
Basic reasoning ▾

We're picking Notre Dame Fighting Irish.

Our model gives ND a predicted 50.5% chance to win outright against BYU. No sportsbook spread was available for this game, so the pick is based on who's more likely to win outright.

ND also grades out as the better team this season, which backs up the pick.

This pick is worth 2 confidence points this week — the more points assigned, the more confident the model is.

Reasoning & ESPN stats ▾

Reasoning

  1. Regressed preseason ratings from the 2025 season, pulled toward league-average (regression retains 65% of the raw historical rating): BYU +4.13 vs ND +7.02.
  2. Blended with this season's to-date rating (85.0% weight for BYU, 85.0% for ND, based on games played so far) → model rating of BYU +7.52 vs ND +10.15.
  3. Add home-field edge (~+2.50 pts) → predicted margin of -0.1 pts for BYU.
  4. Predicted margin converts to a straight-up win probability of 49.5% BYU / 50.5% ND (source: ESPN model).
  5. No sportsbook spread was available for this game, so ATS probability could not be computed.
  6. Decision basis: straight-up fallback — requested ATS mode but no spread was available for this game.
Projected score: ND 24.1 – BYU 23.9

ESPN team stats

BYU (home)ND (away)
Record 11-2 10-2
Win % 84.6% 83.3%
Points for / game 31.9 42.0
Points against / game 19.0 17.6
Avg scoring margin +12.9 +24.4
Strength of schedule +3.336 -0.056
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) #68 of 136 (+0.3) #2 of 136 (+15.9)
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) #14 of 136 (+7.9) #11 of 136 (+8.8)
Season rating (SOS-adjusted) +6.35 +10.80
Regressed preseason rating +4.13 +7.02
Blended rating (used by model) +7.52 +10.15
In-season blend weight 85.0% 85.0%
BYU (home)ND (away)
Record 6-0 6-1
Win % 100.0% 85.7%
Points for / game 33.5 41.1
Points against / game 15.2 13.4
Avg scoring margin +18.3 +27.7
Strength of schedule +3.149 -2.799
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) #68 of 138 (+0.5) #5 of 138 (+13.4)
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) #3 of 138 (+12.7) #21 of 138 (+6.9)
Team rating (SOS-adjusted) +8.12 +10.71
#74 · 1 pts Win % (no spread)

MASS @ BUFF

Massachusetts Minutemen at Buffalo Bulls
Pick Massachusetts Minutemen
Win % (no spread)
50.5% (MASS)
Market spread
No line
Books
—
No sportsbook spread available for this game; fell back to straight-up win probability.
Basic reasoning ▾

We're picking Massachusetts Minutemen.

Our model gives MASS a predicted 50.5% chance to win outright against BUFF. No sportsbook spread was available for this game, so the pick is based on who's more likely to win outright.

MASS also grades out as the better team this season, which backs up the pick.

This pick is worth 1 confidence points this week — the more points assigned, the more confident the model is.

Reasoning & ESPN stats ▾

Reasoning

  1. Regressed preseason ratings from the 2025 season, pulled toward league-average (regression retains 65% of the raw historical rating): BUFF -1.16 vs MASS -10.04.
  2. Blended with this season's to-date rating (85.0% weight for BUFF, 85.0% for MASS, based on games played so far) → model rating of BUFF -3.30 vs MASS -0.67.
  3. Add home-field edge (~+2.50 pts) → predicted margin of -0.1 pts for BUFF.
  4. Predicted margin converts to a straight-up win probability of 49.5% BUFF / 50.5% MASS (source: ESPN model).
  5. No sportsbook spread was available for this game, so ATS probability could not be computed.
  6. Decision basis: straight-up fallback — requested ATS mode but no spread was available for this game.
Projected score: MASS 24.1 – BUFF 23.9

ESPN team stats

BUFF (home)MASS (away)
Record 5-7 0-12
Win % 41.7% 0.0%
Points for / game 24.0 11.1
Points against / game 23.5 38.6
Avg scoring margin +0.5 -27.5
Strength of schedule -2.906 -0.987
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) #71 of 136 (-0.4) #135 of 136 (-15.6)
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) #71 of 136 (-1.0) #136 of 136 (-14.7)
Season rating (SOS-adjusted) -1.79 -15.45
Regressed preseason rating -1.16 -10.04
Blended rating (used by model) -3.30 -0.67
In-season blend weight 85.0% 85.0%
BUFF (home)MASS (away)
Record 4-3 4-3
Win % 57.1% 57.1%
Points for / game 21.4 28.0
Points against / game 25.6 19.1
Avg scoring margin -4.1 +8.9
Strength of schedule +1.814 -5.571
Offense rank (SOS-adj.) #114 of 138 (-7.6) #44 of 138 (+4.0)
Defense rank (SOS-adj.) #66 of 138 (+0.2) #82 of 138 (-1.3)
Team rating (SOS-adjusted) -3.67 +0.99

Methodology

Historical DataPrevious-season completed ESPN games
Team Rating45% scoring margin, 30% win percentage, 15% offensive production, adjusted 90/10 with opponent strength of schedule
In Season BlendPreseason rating (previous season, regressed 65% toward league average) is blended with this season's to-date rating, gaining ~12% weight per completed game (each team's own game count) up to an 85% cap, so form early in a new season doesn't outweigh a small sample, but a stale preseason read doesn't linger all year either.
Home FieldNFL +1.75 points; college +2.5 points; 0 for neutral-site games
ProbabilityPredicted margin converted through logistic probability
MarketOptional 40% market / 60% independent model blend, averaged (no-vig) across every US book The Odds API returns
AtsAgainst-the-spread mode ranks and picks on cover probability: the model's margin is blended 40% toward the market's implied margin (mirroring the moneyline market blend) before comparing to the consensus sportsbook spread, instead of straight-up win probability. Games without a quoted spread fall back to straight-up for that game and are flagged with ats_warning.
Field ConsensusStraight-up mode blends 15% toward the field's own pick percentage. ATS mode fades it instead - heavy public backing on a side is treated as a mild signal against that side of the number.
LeverageModel win probability minus field ownership
ConfidenceGames ranked by decision score and assigned descending points
NoteResearch/decision-support model; not a guarantee of outcomes.